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With no new inflows into the crypto market bitcoin is slowly sinking. An impulse is needed from somewhere if bitcoin is to gain new momentum.
Bitcoin is very much still below its daily and weekly moving averages, indicators that are pointing to further downside unless something fairly momentous pushes the price back above.
Bitcoin has found some support at the $26,000 level, but is currently pushing steadily against this. A break here is likely to see the price drop down to major support at $24,000, and possibly to $21,000, $19,000, and even back to the lows.
One thing is looking much more certain for this bitcoin bull market, and that is the cycle is lengthening. Declining returns is another factor. Some analysts are pointing to how bitcoin is making less gains with each succeeding bull market.
With this in mind, it might be likely that bitcoin only gets as far as $100k this bull market. Perhaps a blow-off top could take it to $150k, but when you look at percentage gains for previous bull markets, this potential best-case scenario is only a 6x from here.
Therefore, bitcoin could certainly take its time and drop lower from here. Is this a bad thing? For those looking to make a fast buck, yes. But for those looking for long term gains and a reliable store of value outside of the legacy monetary system, lower prices mean being able to buy more.
However, as always in markets, the least expected route is the one that may well be followed. There are factors that are bubbling away in the background that could change bitcoin’s trajectory in an extremely decisive way.
Momentum can be regained
Not least among these is the impending decision for a bitcoin spot ETF. This coming Friday, the SEC has to make its decision on whether 6 large and influential institutions will be granted the capacity to launch their own spot ETFs, and by doing so, provide the rocket fuel to propel bitcoin out of its current doldrums.
Of course, the SEC could just decide to put the decision back, so this particular impulse may have to wait until perhaps early next year. Another way around this may come from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, which is due to decide on Grayscale vs SEC. Should this go in Grayscale’s favour, the SEC could be obliged to approve a spot ETF given that it has already approved several futures ETFs.
Whether up, down, or sideways, bitcoin is the asset of the future that provides an alternative to our deeply unfair and corrupt monetary system. The largest institutions are coming to this realisation - it is to be hoped that the common man and woman can also manage to ignore the mainstream media misdirection.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.