Bitcoin (BTC) is stalling a move to the downside but it cannot do that for long. We have seen many traders on both sides shaken out amid confusion in the market. However, this cannot go on for long and sooner or later the price has to crash before the bears get all excited about shorting the market. What happened in the last 48 hours was something that we expected. BTC/USD cannot just start falling by 40% with most of these bears onboard. They are going to clean the casinos out. So what does the casino do? It discourages them from playing the game when they have a good chance at winning. This is what we have seen happen recently as the price candles left big wicks to the upside shaking out aggressive bears with tight stops.
The difference between bulls and bears is that most of the bulls are optimists and the bears are pessimists. So, while the bull might enter a long without any stops hoping and expecting the price to go up, the bears do not take this kind of approach as they are more skeptical. So, they will enter a short position but they will put their stops close by in case things do not go their way. They will do it once and the market makers will shake them out at obvious levels. Then they do it again and meet the same fate. They don’t have the will to do it the third time and that’s when the market makers have a green signal to ‘help’ the price fall. A lot of people in this market talk about the decentralized nature of Bitcoin (BTC) but they forget how unevenly it is distributed.
Tether (USDT) which has been primarily responsible for pumping the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in this manner and staging this fake rally has 80% of it controlled by just 318 crypto addresses. So, is this a real rally? I don’t think so. And is this the beginning of a bull run? Certainly not! Let’s face it, at this point we are waiting for outside money to enter the market. Those that think the bear market is not over will not get in and the same goes for the people that are expecting a major correction even if they are bullish.
So, it all comes down to new investors coming into the market. Many in the crypto community expect it to be institutional investors but think about this. Why would institutional investors enter a market that is manipulated by a small group of people where exchange hacks and loss of information is so frequent? Why would they enter a very risky emerging market when the stock market is on the cusp of a massive downtrend? And why would they enter the market when Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has just broken the ascending triangle and begun a new uptrend? This would not be happening if we were in a bull market or close to one.