Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied past $11,280 in the past 24 hours. If we take a look at my latest analysis on BTC/USD we can see that the price has followed the exact same path as I predicted. This means that we might see BTC/USD climb towards $12,300 in the near future. However, this does not change the long term outlook. If we take a look at the weekly chart, we can see that there is nothing much to be excited about long term. The price remains vulnerable and the setup is bearish so long as BTC/USD remains below the critical trend line resistance. The Fear and Greed Index shows that the sentiment has turned optimistic again.
However, there is no reason to expect the price to climb towards the previous peak. We expect it to face rejection around the 61.8% fib retracement level and decline from there. There is still a lot of FOMO in the market and a lot of investors that are buying the narrative that BTC/USD has already bottomed and has begun a new bull market have now another similar fractal on the 1H time frame. This is as if the market makers wanted to use a working blueprint to trap in more overly optimistic bulls before they pull the plugs. A lot of investors still believe that the bear market is over which would make the ongoing bear-market a lot shorter than the previous one.
Thanks to ‘influencers’ on Youtube and Twitter this has been made possible and a lot of investors are now expecting the price to fly to a new all-time high without even filling the gaps it left on CME Futures. Analysts and investors have come up with all sorts of fancy tools and charts to prove that the price is in a bull trend but there is nothing more useful than keeping it all simple. We can use simple trend lines to tell us when to buy and when to sell. If the conditions are right, you buy and if the conditions are wrong, you see. It does not matter if the price is at $40,000 or $400,000 when that happens.