Litecoin (LTC) continues to rally hard and is now close to testing the 38.2% fib retracement level from its all-time high. This might very well be the end of the rally as LTC/USD has a history of topping out before halvening. During the previous Litecoin (LTC) halvening, the price topped out 35 days before the halvening. It continued to decline before, during and after the halvening which speaks volumes about the immediate effect of halvening on the price of an asset. The price then entered a consolidation phase more than a year before it eventually began a new bullish cycle. However, this time, instead of the consolidation we are likely to see further downside, but before we get into that let us compare the similarities between the two halvenings.
There is no denying that the price did fall before, during and after the last halvening. It is all on the charts for everyone to see. So, those that are making a big deal of the upcoming halvening expecting the price to fly afterwards really need to reconsider. The price had a parabolic run up before halvening similar to what we have seen this time. It topped out and then declined 74% from there before it entered consolidation. If the same happens this time, we could see Litecoin (LTC) decline to a price of at least $40 per coin. The RSI has clearly topped out and the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator on the weekly chart point to the possibility of a big fall from here. One thing that is important to note is that LTC/USD did not run into the 38.2% fib retracement from ATH when it topped out before the last halvening. This could mean that we are at an early stage of the bear market during the ongoing cycle.
While it was risky to chase the Litecoin (LTC) FOMO rally leading to the previous halvening, it is even riskier to chase the current rally to the upcoming halvening because we are not close to ending the bear market just yet. This means that Litecoin (LTC) could experience significant pain after the Litecoin (LTC) FOMO rally fails. It will leave a lot of investors dejected who will sell their coins at a loss and leave the market. This will also set expectations for the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halvening in 2020.
The weekly chart for LTC/BTC points to yet another bearish development for Litecoin (LTC) and that is its downtrend against Bitcoin (BTC). It is about to form a double top and begin its next major decline against Bitcoin (BTC). The long term outlook suggests that we are unlikely to see Litecoin (LTC) go anywhere but lower against Bitcoin (BTC) during the months ahead. Litecoin (LTC) is likely to form a new low against Bitcoin (BTC) this year or the next year. Some analysts have also pointed out that 2019 could be the end of Litecoin (LTC). We have yet to see how any of that happens but it is clear that the market has yet to experience maximum pain and it would not be surprising to see some useless coins wiped off the market.