Ethereum (ETH) has just plunged below the 38.2% fib retracement level against Bitcoin (BTC). We were previously expecting a rally towards the 200 day EMA on the ETH/BTC chart but the recent pump in Bitcoin (BTC) which led to it outpacing most other cryptocurrencies including Ethereum (ETH) led to other cryptocurrencies losing ground against Bitcoin (BTC). As a result of that, Ethereum (ETH) has now declined below the key 38.2% fib retracement level against Bitcoin (BTC). This is a bearish event not just for Ethereum (ETH) but for the rest of the altcoin market as well. We are now very close to seeing the 21 day EMA close below the 50 day EMA. If that happens, a more aggressive downtrend will follow and cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) will decline sharply.
The daily chart for ETH/BTC shows that the pair might decline down to the bottom of the wedge from current levels. This would inflict serious pain on Ethereum (ETH) and we might see it decline down to the key support at $144 and potentially lower than that in the months ahead. The whales and market makers seem to be in quite a hurry to get out of this market. Maybe something big is in the offing that the rest of the market does not know about because this is rarely how they operate. Their goal is to squeeze the market out of every potential penny as much as possible but the recent manipulation shows that they are in quite a hurry to dump their coins and get out. They did that recently by running stops and then selling into the short squeeze. It is not hard to see what is going to follow after this.
The 15 min chart for ETH/USD shows that Ethereum (ETH) remains in a downtrend and although it has started the day in green, it is expected to turn red soon. The price faced a rejection at the 61.8% fib retracement level and as we can see on the RSI, the downtrend remains intact. Ethereum (ETH) like other altcoins is expected to lose more ground against Bitcoin (BTC) in the days ahead. We mentioned in some of our previous analyses that we might see a mini altcoin season as a result of a correction to the upside.
However, as we saw recently, this was a different kind of correction than the one we expected. It was led by Bitcoin (BTC) and it was manipulated instead of real buying interest. This has now invalidated that plan and we no longer remain bullish on altcoins short term. The market is expected to decline hard from here and it is only a matter of time before that happens. It is therefore not a good idea to be considering investments in Ethereum (ETH) or any other altcoins at this point as the risk/reward is not worth it.