The best time to sell Bitcoin (BTC) was when it was trading close to $20,000 but the second best time to sell Bitcoin (BTC) is now. In this analysis we will explain why this is the perfect time to be selling Bitcoin (BTC) and not buying it. Let us first look at the weekly chart for BTC/USD. Since the creation of Bitcoin (BTC) and throughout its trading history, we have seen strong similarities between various market cycles. History may not have repeated itself but it has rhymed and very closely. One thing to observe here is that market cycles have kept on expanding throughout. This is because as more people and more money get into the market, it takes time to enter and leave. For the sake of simplicity, think of it as a bus leaving from point A to point B. If there are more people boarding the bus, it will take longer to get in and get out so there will be a delay.
All of this is pretty straightforward and if there were more people entering and leaving the bus, you would be thinking that the bus is going to take longer to go from point A to point B, not shorter. Now, thinking that the bus is going to take shorter in that case would be very unreasonable. Coming back to Bitcoin (BTC), that is exactly what most people are doing. While they know full well looking at this chart that market cycles have kept on expanding, they want to assume that the ongoing cycle will be shorter than preceding cycle just because they wish it to be the case. Fortunately or unfortunately, markets do not care about wishes. If we believe that the current market cycle is going to be longer than the previous one as it should be, then we are not in the 2015 part of the previous cycle.
Not being in the 2015 part of the previous cycle changes everything. It makes all the difference and it could change your bias from bullish to bearish. Let us look at the weekly chart for BTC/USD between 2013 and 2015. The part of the market cycle enclosed within the circle bears strong resemblance to what we are seeing right now. Yet most people would choose to ignore this because they want to believe the bear market is over. Even the NVT indicator at that time is flashing the same sell signal as it is now.
If this scenario unfolds which is very likely that it would, we could see the price drop by at least 70% from current levels. This would make it a terrible time to be buying Bitcoin (BTC) right now as you would be down 70% on your investments. For instance, if you invested $10,000 dollars into Bitcoin (BTC), you would now have $3,000 left and for all we know the next bullish cycle could take months if not years to begin. This also makes a lot of sense also because BTC/USD has yet to break below the trend line support. So far that has not happened in the current cycle which is why this is the time to be selling and not buying Bitcoin (BTC).