Likewise, a few weeks ago, we saw a similar thing happen within the markets when the SEC rejected a Bitcoin ETF application made by the Winklevoss twins and Gemini.
It has become clear recently that these ETF decisions are holding an emotional grip on the markets and thus, when they are denied or ignored, the markets react poorly. On the flip side, we do guess that should an ETF be approved, the markets will fly.
Over the next two months, it is estimated that there’s a total of nine current ETF applications that are due for a decision. This means that during the rest of August and September, we could see some very big changes in the markets indeed. The more ETFs are rejected, the less of an impact they will have (in theory) but, as the application system is still in its infancy, we expect these nine to cause a bit of a storm. Especially if a few are accepted.
According to Coindesk:
“Combined with past submissions from firms ProShares, Direxion and GraniteShares, a total of 10 bitcoin-related funds are being weighed by SEC officials, according to public records, although the VanEck/SolidX bitcoin ETF is the only “physical” ETF among all the proposals. September will see a series of deadlines for bitcoin ETFs, starting on September 15, the date by which two funds by GraniteShares will receive a thumbs-up or thumbs-down. The funds were initially proposed on January 5. The deadline for Direxion’s four funds is September 21, as indicated by public records, after being first submitted on January 4.”
“To be sure, the agency could release its decisions ahead of its prescribed deadline (as the SEC did this week). But past examples indicate that the SEC will wait until closer to the deadlines, all but ensuring additional nail-biting by the crypto community.”
What should we expect?
We can’t guess what decisions the SEC will make, however we can hope that they stick to their deadlines. Yes, they can make announcements whenever they like in theory, but this would only have a negative impact on the markets. By remaining calm and by following the proper timelines, the SEC have the power to at least keep the markets ‘cool’. ETF approvals will see the markets fly, further denials might have an impact at first, but eventually, the markets will just have to get used to it.