“I expect that since cryptocurrencies will increase the velocity of money, the current $86 trillion global market for currency will grow to be about $140 trillion in the next 10 years, and that growth will be in crypto. In fact, I estimate that fiat currencies will actually decrease in use, and that crypto will become as much as $100 trillion of that market.”When asked about Bitcoin specifically:
“I expect Bitcoin to be about 10% of that market, or $10 trillion. There is a lot of room to grow there. I have no interest in selling my Bitcoin. What would I sell it into anyway? Moving from crypto to fiat is like trading shells for gold. It is reverting to the past. I'm thinking long term I'll use it, spend it, invest it, or just keep it. Price-wise, we'll continue to see Bitcoin move higher. I've revised my estimate up to $250,000 four years out, so we'll see Bitcoin trade around the $250,000 mark in 2022.”You can see the full interview and transcript for yourself, here. Swapping shells for gold is an interesting metaphor, but at the very least it gives us an indication of why Draper is so bullish about Bitcoin and indeed, gives us great insight into why he doesn’t want to sell. He simply believes that cryptos will be the new money and that, by holding now, he isn’t looking for good sell off periods through price spikes, instead he believes that eventually, Bitcoin will reach a (very high) intrinsic value and will stay there. In this instance, if each of his Bitcoin is eventually worth $250,000.00 then not only will he have made a great investment, he will also have an awful lot of money to spend in the real world, money which otherwise would have been sold off if he took to a more traditional investment approach. Drapers comments are interesting and insightful but please don't’ let this get the better of you. A 3000% rise is a huge claim. Indeed, in four years time it could be possible, but in a world surrounded by speculation and uncertainty, this does look quite unlikely, for now at least.