Ripple (XRP) makes all the gains for a whole cycle in a month’s time. In other words, the price corrects for the rest of the year as some investors take profit and others panic sell. While this may seem like a farfetched theory, it is surprising to see how Ripple (XRP) follows the exact same pattern over and over again as demonstrated by the chart for XRP/BTC above. In 2017, Ripple (XRP) surged at the end of March and reached the peak of its cycle within a period of 26 days. For the rest of the year, the price corrected against Bitcoin (BTC) and reached a bottom around December that year.
The price then started to rise again in early January and reached the peak of its cycle again in 26 days. More surprisingly, it followed the exact same pattern of an aggressive fall within 94 days and is now following a steady correction phase of 110 days. Technically speaking, Ripple (XRP) has not bottomed out yet according to the charts above. However, if these fractals are any indication, the correction is expected to complete in the next 9 days which will mark the end of a 110 days steady correction cycle.
RSI conditions for XRP/BTC are already in oversold territory on the daily chart. However, further downside is likely as Ripple (XRP) will have to complete this cycle before the next one can begin. Ripple (XRP) is still the third largest coin by market cap with a lot of community support. XRP investors are very confident in the long term potential of the project as they believe that more and more companies will use XRP for liquidity sourcing in the future. This simple case for supply and demand favors Ripple (XRP) bulls who expect big banks and financial institutions to replace their nostro accounts with XRP using Ripple’s X Rapid service.
Ripple (XRP) might appear to have almost reached its bottom on the XRP/BTC chart but the chart above for XRP/USD tells a slightly different story. Since the beginning of this correction, XRP has only touched the resistance line once at a price of $1. It now faces a similar situation with similar short term overbought conditions on lower time frames. This means that if XRP/USD faces a rejection at these levels it will trigger a pullback, presenting a near term bearish setup. EMA alignment on the 4H chart for XRP/USD continues to remain bearish.
The most plausible explanation for the recent rally seems to have been a Bitcoin (BTC) short squeeze on some exchanges. The positive momentum attracted some retail investors who got bored waiting on the sidelines for far too long. This resulted in a short term sentiment shift from bearish to strongly bullish. That is also why the price kept rising even as RSI on the 4H chart reached extremely high levels. While Ripple (XRP) may still continue its downtrend to find a bottom for this cycle, it is pertinent to note that the recent rally is indicative of changing long term sentiment from bearish to bullish in the days to come.