LAST WEEKS IN A NUTSHELL:
It’s been one sweaty September so far, hasn’t it? Lots of ups and downs recently in the Solana Universe. Between the 24-hour downtime of the entire Solana Network (SOL/USD) - causing the price of its native token SOL to decline by roughly 25% from above $170 all-important level, all the way down to $135, followed by a steep recovery both in price al well as in general retail confidence, through to extreme uncertainty experienced by holders of the coin (SOL/USD: $138, on Fri 24th Sep, down -8.6% compared to last week). Then we have had the Chinese crisis and farther bad news concerning the alleged total ban on all the mining and crypto businesses, which farther shook the price of crypto. The US Stock Market was potentially to be badly affected by the Chinese real estate giant Evergrande (eventually the Chinese government decided to intervene but this is far from finished). It has been one hell of a ride for SOL (7th biggest crypto; 41 billion $ marketcap)
PRICE ACTION AND TA:
The previous week in Solana (SOL/USD) saw a 24-hr downtime after the Network was allegedly attacked and its dollar value was slashed by nearly -25%. The Solana Network is one of the youngest blockchains in operation (whitepaper released in 2017 compared to bitcoin’s whitepaper in 2008). The crisis was quickly dealt with, and in a professional manner too, with their communication very much on-the-ball with the public on Twitter handling the pressure very well. The price only fell down by roughly -25% and then recovered to over $170 in the next 5 days (the outage took place on 14th Sep). This decline in price in only fourth or fifth steepest short time decline in SOL’s price-action history).
Then another correction in price occurred when the Chinese giant Evergrande failed to pay their dollar interest and eventually we saw SOL (SOL/USDT) below the important $135 region - although very briefly.
In other news – crazy levels of inflows into SOLANA NFT MARKETPLACE (current capitalization $466 million; up by 14.6% in a week). And this added weight of investment capital could be felt when BTC (BTC/USD) crashed by almost 17% in two days, and SOL (SOL/USD) became one of the strongest coins when the market recovered in the aftermath. Solana investors and users find value in amazingly low transaction costs especially compared to SOL’s competition such as ETH (ETH/USD) (2nd cryptocurrency valued at $2.9k Fri 24th Sep; -19% compared to last week). With Ethereum’s bad reputation over transaction costs, SOL seems to be enjoying its growing hype and reputation due to inflows from ETH investors.
The outage might have lasted the entire 24-hour period but the network is well back online and firing. According to data from Coinshare, Solana -backed products saw more inflows than Bitcoin and Ethereum-backed products.
On the 4hr we have received strong support from the 200 EMA (blue line on chart) but the price would need to break out of the descending channel (between the pink trendlines), above the all-important round number of $150 (thick yellow line showing previous significance as previous support and resistance on multiple occasions) in order to flip all TA people bullish medium-term. The RSI looks ready to change its bearish trend to bullish if the price in fact stays above $135-155 range.
Worst case scenario would be to dip into single digits again, test the lower trendline of the descending channel around $90-95 (surely EXTREME FEAR would follow indicating the perfect time to dollar average into SOL, not an investment advice, just food for thought).
UPCOMING MONTHS FOR SOL
Our eyes should stay focused also on the Old S&P500 (SPX/USD), while its correlation with the cryptomarkets direction in recent weeks has been rather astonishing. When the US Stock Market was testing the usual support on the brink of a long-awaited correction and causing massive FEAR, all Crypto Capitalisation fell below 2 billion (currently at $1.97 billion; -12% compared to last week). S&P500 has recovered all of its losses from Monday the 20th of Sep (from as low as $4314 back to its levels from before the Evergrande crisis at $4450 indicating a possible bounce off the support and continued uptrend at least for another month potentially).
All of these storylines affect crypto prices more than any amount of TA at the moment. Also one has to remember that SOL (SOL/USD) might still be in its phase of price discovery having only earlier this month hit its ATH above $215.
But the immediate medium term looks positive with SOL being able to capitalize on the booming NFT craze, the increasing institutional investment into Solana Network (Cathie Wood and Kevin O’Leary being some of the high-profile backers). It is really easy to be optimistic about the future of the SOL Network if they manage to fully recover from the recent security breach and strengthen their network. This will give investors more confidence to put more of their money into SOL (SOL/USD) and see the recent crisis as only a bump in the road to continue development. The network is only going to get stronger from this as has the ETH network in the past.
Also, there is an upcoming Solana event in Lisbon and with the current hype (that only slightly diminished since the outage more than 10 days ago) many capitalists should be there and possibly lots of investment ideas floating around the place (more details next week in this space), we could well see some bullish news from this event.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.