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- As the US election takes place today, many crypto enthusiasts have predicted that no matter what the outcome, bitcoin will come out a winner.
- Many mainstream polls are indicating that Joe Biden will get the keys to the White House though but in crypto production markets, this isn’t as reflected.
As the US election takes place today on the 3rd of November, many crypto enthusiasts have predicted that no matter what the outcome, bitcoin will come out a winner.
Many mainstream polls are indicating that Joe Biden will get the keys to the White House though but in crypto prediction markets, this isn’t as reflected. If you look on Twitter as well, you will see numerous hashtags from both sides of Republican supporters and democratic supporters showing a mixed bag of who could win.
The co-founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin has said that the key difference between statistical models and prediction markets presents something of a “puzzle“.
He has also estimated three reasons as to why the differences have emerged and whether political bias has infiltrated them as well.
The co-founder of one of the biggest crypto networks in the world has said that these markets “correctly incorporate the possibility of heightened election meddling, voter suppression, etc. affecting the outcome.”
On Twitter, he said the following indicating that many optimistic about Trump remaining in power for the next four years:
1. Bets on prediction markets correctly incorporate the possibility of heightened election meddling, voter suppression, etc affecting the outcome, but statistical models just assume the voting process is fair— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) November 3, 2020
(This is the pro-prediction-market explanation)
To highlight this, the co-founder specifically spoke to Nate Silver in his next tweet on Twitter in an attempt to question him on how his model accounts for voter suppression - something of which has allegedly been rife in the 2020 campaign for Donald Trump.
Buterin further went on to say that the prediction markets are still too illiquid to be properly accurate and highlighted the expected political allegiances of production markets participants.
@NateSilver538 how do your models account for voter suppression?— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) November 3, 2020
The third estimate was one that he ultimately dismissed saying that many individuals including analysts are “incorrigibly dumb and just haven’t learned their lessons around detecting surprise pro-Trump voters as happened in 2016.”.
Just as the election is about to take place, many people are concerned about who is going to come out on top.
All eyes, not just from America, focused on the election and what could be one of the most important democratic events in our lifetime.
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