How Low Could Bitcoin (BTC) Fall From Here?

How Low Could Bitcoin (BTC) Fall From Here?

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the day below $11,000 but it ended up rallying past $11k as we predicted in our last analysis on BTC/USD. The price ended up retracing from $11,000 and ended up closing below it just below the 21 Day EMA. One might argue that the 21 Day EMA was not really hit and the price could still shoot past it. We are looking at the XBT/USD chart from the Bitmex exchange but prices vary from one exchange to another and we could see it being hit on other exchanges. That being said, this is not very significant and the price has already started the day above the 21 Day EMA and is expected to close below it by end of the day. If we take a look at the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin (BTC) has topped out and is now extremely unlikely to shoot towards a new all-time high or even a new yearly high.

It could stall a move to the downside but it is going to decline sooner or later. The 4H chart shows that the price failed to close above the $11,000 mark because it has now become a strong resistance. This zone is not likely to be breached easily now that the price has crashed below it. There is a lot of seller waiting to sell at that level which is why we do not expect the price rising above it. If we take a look at the 15 minutes chart, we can see that the price has broken below a rising wedge. This breakdown is certainly not very clean but then again it never is clean in real time trading. The market makers have to shake out retail traders here and there but the price always ends up doing what it is supposing to do without the impatient traders onboard.

The death cross on the 15 minutes chart is going to be the catalyst to bring the price down. Death crosses on 15 minute charts are not really significant but in this market we have seen them to be significant especially in periods of downtrends. If we take a look at Coinmarketcap, we can see that Bitcoin dominance is on the rise as BTC/USD is up more compared to most major altcoins in the past 24 hours. This trend is unlikely to change anytime soon. Bitcoin dominance is likely to keep on rising to 85% or higher and there is only two cases in which that could happen. Either BTC/USD will keep on rallying more than the rest of the market or it will keep holding its ground better compared to most of the market.

We expect the second scenario to be most likely considering BTC/USD has topped out and is now long overdue for a major correction. If we take a look at the EUR/USD pair, we can see that it is in line with the future outlook of Bitcoin (BTC). The pair closed below the 50 Day EMA which is very significant. If it ends up breaking below the descending triangle, we will see a strong decline in Bitcoin (BTC) because as the US Dollar (USD) goes up Bitcoin (BTC) comes down in Dollar terms and vice versa. Based on the discussed factors, we see no reason how Bitcoin (BTC) could rise to a new all-time high or even a new yearly high from here. We expect it to have topped out here and the downtrend is likely to follow sooner rather than later.   

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