Bitcoin (BTC) is in a no trade zone as far as traders are concerned. The number of bulls is low compared to that of bears and confused investors. The above daily chart for BTC/USD
shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is reluctant to test the 61.8% Fib retracement level from the previous high. Even if it does test that level, confusion will continue to loom over as long as Bitcoin (BTC) stays below $10,000. Bitcoin (BTC)’s trading volume is on a constant decline. Institutional investors have showed interest in Bitcoin (BTC) the last few months. However, they seem to be waiting for a green signal before they get involved. As for retail investors who lost money panic selling, the price has to fall a lot deeper before they buy again. There seems to be a lot of buyers around the $5,800 level which is why it has not been breached yet.
The Bullish Pennant
Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully formed a bullish pennant that extends all the way towards the end of October. Since mid July, Bitcoin (BTC) has also been forming higher lows. This is a very bullish development that could lend Bitcoin (BTC) the strength it needs to break the downtrend resistance and begin a new rally. RSI conditions seem ripe for such a rally. Wave trend analysis also shows that there is ample room for growth. If Bitcoin breaks out of this bullish pennant, it will rise rapidly towards $10,000. This will convince most investors waiting on the sidelines to board the train. This is the first scenario and also the most probable one. As we have seen in the past, bullish pennants break out to the upside most of the time.
A large majority of cryptocurrency investors are of the view that BTC/USD
is trading in a triangle and it has to break down first. A variant to this scenario is that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) must touch the bottom of the triangle once more before it rises up again. However, the vast majority is sold on the idea of Bitcoin (BTC) breaking market structure. For that to happen, Bitcoin (BTC) will have to breach through the strong $5,800 support and then settle around $5,100 level. This scenario is also referred to as the final shakeout. Considering the manipulation we have seen in the past, it is likely that the whales can pull off something like this. However, now that institutional money is ready to buy the dips around $5,800, this scenario does not appear very plausible.
Exchanges like Coinbase and Baakt have been busy buying the dips for clients these past few months. The whales cannot play with these guys; they invented the game. These exchanges are not going to be alarmed if the price falls below $5,800. Considering the state of global markets and economies, institutional investors are running towards cryptocurrencies to diversify and hedge against the next financial crisis. The Fed has run out of ammo and is extremely unlikely to bail out the markets this time. Back in 1988, thirty years from now, The Economist predicted
that in 2018, we will have one global currency, “Phoenix”. This is it.