It is safe to say that Bitcoin has struggled recently. Not just in terms of its value, but also its reputation too. Bitcoin is under pressure from rival altcoins that are promising the cryptocurrency community far more than Bitcoin can offer. Moreover, smothered within the Bitcoin Core vs Bitcoin Cash debate, Bitcoin is starting to lose its fan base.
Of course, Bitcoin still remains the king of crypto and probably always will be, however, status means nothing when you’re unable to withhold your value, right?
Our latest calculations point towards how Bitcoin will perform if another bull run takes off today. Bitcoin is susceptible to market surges however historic data points towards a figure of around 50%. On average, within a bull run, Bitcoin only jumps up 50%.
Let’s check the statistics.
During January and February 2018, when Bitcoin was in a volatile state, we saw two significant price swings for Bitcoin, seeing it move between values around $13,309.00 and $12,437.00 up to $19,769.00 and $17,547.00, up 48% and 41% respectively.
Actually, with this in mind, our 50% estimation is very generous.
Either way, with Bitcoin currently valued at $6,236.49, a 50% rise would see Bitcoin valued at just shy of $9400.00. Now consider that in April, Bitcoin exceeded this price quite nicely, all of a sudden, a 50% rise seems like nothing at all.
Okay so on paper, a 50% gain on your investment seems quite nice, but we have to see the bigger picture here. Bitcoin investors expect to see Bitcoin hitting $20,000.00 this year. However, as it stands, even a huge market surge (which would struggle to see Bitcoin jump by more than 50%) would only allow the value of Bitcoin to see values of just over $9,000.00, way short of $10,000.00 and not even in the same ball park as $20,000.00.
We are not saying that this is a definitive prediction. Historical trends are simply just trends, and of course, history. Bitcoin could very well prove us wrong and we do hope it does, but at least by reviewing historical movements, we can estimate how a market jump might affect Bitcoin. Granted, we could start to see Bitcoin heal over the coming weeks, which in turn could help mature its value way closer to $10,000.00. If this happens, a 50% could bring Bitcoin up as far as $15,000.00, a far more promising figure in the grand scheme of things.
Please note that this is not investment advice and is simply speculation. If you choose to invest, please do your own research and likewise, when you have invested, be careful with your assets. Bitcoin still promises great returns, the take home message here however – don’t let optimism get the better of you.