With the markets in such a poor condition, we quite like it when economists tell us that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will shoot up soon. Today however, a report from Bitcoin.com tells us how famed Japanese economist, Yukio Noguchi has told Diamond Weekly how Bitcoin Futures could mean that Bitcoin will never surge again.
Just when we really need a Bitcoin surge, it now seems quite unlikely to happen.
According to Bitcoin.com:
“He argues that the introduction of the futures market has driven down the price considerably. This year in January he persuasively argued that the cause of Bitcoin price collapse was the start of the selling of bitcoin futures. Bitcoin prices were a bubble, to begin with, and now we’re seeing a return to normal values. The San Francisco Federal Bank, in a report, also suggested that the introduction of Bitcoin futures trading caused a price drop. Additionally, the market is heading towards a situation in which it will be possible to short-sell bitcoin futures and that will also contribute to keeping the prices down.”
See more for yourself, here- https://news.bitcoin.com/japanese-economist-explains-why-another-bitcoin-price-surge-is-unlikely/
Most interestingly though, Noguchi does see this as beneficial in the long run. This is a sentiment reflected within the community of those who aim to see cryptocurrency adopted. Surges are an organic part of volatility, this in turn makes cryptocurrency harder to adopt and makes Bitcoin look like a less attractive product, to the normal person.
One problem with this, is the definition of the word surge. At which point does a Bitcoin price rise, turn into a surge. Within this report, does Noguchi simply think that Bitcoin Futures will limit future Bitcoin price rises to more patient climbs of around 5% at a time? Or does he refer to a surge as a big overall price change, even over a longer period of time? It is hard to define and I think his argument could benefit from a definition in this context.
Either way, we can never really know if Bitcoin will surge again or even when Bitcoin will surge again. Indeed, Bitcoin Futures trading has had an impact and also, eventually volatility will calm down and adoption will become more realistic. As it stands though, I think the markets are still a bit immature for this.