HYPE Risks $70 if Regulators Stall Hyperliquid Strategies' U.S. FCM Application

Three Things to Know

• Hyperliquid Strategies filed to become a U.S. futures commission merchant, a step that could open HYPE-based markets to American clients.
• HYPE has slipped under its 50-day average, and momentum still favors sellers.
• The 200-day average near $70 is the line that could decide whether the broader uptrend survives.

Hyperliquid Strategies, the Nasdaq-listed firm that holds HYPE as its main treasury asset, has asked U.S. regulators for broker status in futures. Approval would let a subsidiary serve American clients on markets built on Hyperliquid.

The filing lands as HYPE struggles through a broad crypto selloff, and corporate buying has failed to stop the slide. Traders now want to know whether the token can hold its longer-term trend during a review of uncertain length.

Hyperliquid Strategies Bets on a U.S. Futures License

Hyperliquid Strategies (NASDAQ: PURR) has filed to register as a futures commission merchant (FCM). If regulators approve, a subsidiary could carry accounts for U.S. clients trading permissioned HIP-3 markets built on Hyperliquid. The company gave no guarantee on timing or outcome.

Third-quarter revenue reached $13.3 million, above analyst estimates of $10.6 million to $12 million. Staking and validator commissions supplied $12.3 million of that total. Unrealized gains on HYPE of $803.0 million lifted net income to $620.6 million.

During the quarter, the firm spent $785 million on 9.1 million tokens. It held 38.9 million HYPE by Oct 28, at a blended cost of $56.35 per token. Chief executive David Schamis called the token buying and the FCM plan "the same bet."

Earlier, ICE agreed to partner with TradeXYZ on Hyperliquid-based perpetuals for U.S. traders. Markets shrugged on Nov 5. PURR fell 9.6% to $8.76. HYPE dropped about 7% the same day.

HYPE Slips Under Its 50-Day Average With $70 in View

HYPE traded near $77.62 at last check, up about 1% over the past day. That small gain does little to repair the damage from the past week. The token is still trading under its 50-day moving average, which sits near $82.41.

A moving average smooths out daily swings to show the underlying trend. The 50-day line tracks the past two months or so of trading. HYPE held above it before last week's slide, and buyers used it as a floor. The break turned that line into a ceiling. Any rebound now has to push through a level where recent buyers may look to exit near breakeven.

The longer view still offers some cushion. The 200-day average, a gauge of the trend over roughly a year of trading, runs near $69.40. Price remains above it, so the broader uptrend has not broken yet. Traders will watch that floor if selling resumes.

HYPE fell about 13% over seven days. Over the past month, the loss reached roughly 16%. Those declines came during the same stretch in which Hyperliquid Strategies kept adding tokens to its treasury. Corporate demand has not been large enough to offset the wider crypto selloff.

The latest bounce looks shallow. One green day after a steep drop often reflects short covering, with little sign of fresh conviction. A real turn would need a close back above the 50-day line.

Sellers Still Hold the Momentum

RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits at 41. That reading is weak, but it is still well above the oversold zone below 30. In plain terms, sellers have pushed hard without exhausting themselves.

MACD, a tool that compares short and longer price trends, adds to the caution. It remains below its signal line, so momentum is still pointing down. Trend-strength readings show a downtrend starting to take shape, with sellers leading it.

That combination matters for anyone eyeing a quick rebound. Rallies in this setup tend to stall early as holders sell into strength. Until MACD crosses back up, each bounce looks like a pause.

Where the Floor Gives Way

The first test sits near $74.45, the nearest support. That level caught buyers during the latest drop, and it sits only a few dollars below the current price. A daily close under it would show that the bounce has failed.

Losing that floor would leave the 200-day average as the next line of defense. If that longer trend gauge also breaks, the chart shows little in the way until about $63.77. A drop there would mean a slide of roughly a fifth. It would also erase much of the treasury firm's paper gains on recent purchases.

Upside levels sit close together. Resistance near $82.61 lies just above the 50-day average, so both barriers would likely be tested at once. A further hurdle waits around $84.64. Reclaiming both would undo last week's breakdown and hand the trend back to buyers.

Two Paths for the Next 72 Hours

• Bullish: A daily close above the first resistance, just over the 50-day line, would put the higher hurdle in play. That move would signal buyers have absorbed last week's selling. A drop back under the nearest support would cancel this view.
• Bearish: A close below that nearby floor would open the way to the 200-day average, then the deeper support further down. A reclaim of the first resistance would invalidate this path and leave sellers trapped.

A Long Bet That Needs Short-Term Patience

The futures license could widen HYPE's reach to U.S. traders. Approval may take months. Until the token reclaims the resistance above its 50-day line, sellers set the pace.

A slow regulatory review or another leg of the crypto selloff could drag HYPE toward its 200-day average faster than corporate buying can absorb.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.