BTC Slides to a 53-Day Low as Mercado Bitcoin Hack Revives Custody Fears

Three Things to Know

• Brazil's largest crypto exchange reopened in view-only mode after a hack froze customer withdrawals for a week.
• Bitcoin is resting right on its long-term average, and momentum still favors sellers.
• Bulls need a daily close above $80,000 to wrest the short-term trend back from sellers.

Mercado Bitcoin let customers view their accounts again on Nov 9, a week after attackers drained its hot wallets. Withdrawals and trading stay shut, with no date set to restore them.

The breach has barely touched Bitcoin's price so far. Still, it lands on a chart already sliding, and custody worries can sap demand quickly. Traders now want to know whether the long-term trend line holds or gives way.

Mercado Bitcoin Reopens in View-Only Mode a Week After Its Hot Wallets Were Drained

Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil's largest crypto exchange, halted withdrawals on Nov 2 after attackers hit its hot wallets and customer deposit addresses. The platform partially reopened on Nov 9 in view-only mode. Vice president Fabricio Tota announced the phased restart in a video on X.

Customers can now see balances, statements and holdings. Transfers, deposits and trading remain closed.

On-chain analysts counted 36,042 Ethereum deposit addresses emptied on Nov 2. The drain ran for about four and a half hours that morning and afternoon, Brazil time. Security firm Hypernative flagged suspicious transactions on at least 10 blockchains. Analysts put the loss between $40 million and $46 million. Mercado Bitcoin has confirmed none of these figures.

Tether, an investor in Mercado Bitcoin, froze more than 4.5 million USDT. The exchange pledged to cover losses with its own funds and to buy back assets at home and abroad.

U.S. Google searches for the exchange jumped 250% in the following week. The episode reminds holders that coins left on a platform are only a claim on that company. Bitcoin, with a market value above $1.5 trillion, has so far shrugged it off.

Bitcoin Sits Stuck Under Both of Its Key Averages

Bitcoin traded near $76,000, flat over the past 24 hours. That calm day shows the Brazil hack is barely moving the price. The weakness comes from a steady drift lower that has run for weeks.

Over seven days the coin slipped about 2%. Over 30 days it lost about 7%. Neither move looks like panic, yet together they show buyers stepping back a little more each week.

The moving averages make that drift easier to see. A moving average smooths out daily noise by tracking the average closing price over a set period. Bitcoin sits below its 50-day average, near $79,000, so that line now works as a ceiling on rallies.

A bigger test is the 200-day average, which sits right at the current price. Traders treat this line as the dividing mark between a long-term uptrend and a downtrend. Price is resting right on it today, which means the long-term trend is being decided in real time.

The coin stands about 40% below its all-time high of $126,080, set in October 2025. The gap is wide, but the pattern fits a slow correction with no sign of a sudden collapse.

Sellers Keep the Upper Hand Without Hitting Exhaustion

RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, reads about 38 on the daily chart. That puts Bitcoin in weak territory, below the neutral middle band. It is still well above 30, the line where selling usually starts to look overdone. In plain terms, sellers have room to push further before a relief bounce becomes likely.

Momentum points the same way. The MACD, a tool that compares short and longer price trends, remains below its signal line. The downside push has not turned yet.

Trend strength adds a third clue. The readings show a trend starting to form, and sellers are the ones leading it. A seller-led trend that is only now gaining shape tends to persist until buyers step in at a clear level.

$80K Is the Ceiling Bulls Must Reclaim

Overhead, the first real barrier sits near $80,000. That level rests just above the 50-day line, so the two form one band of selling pressure. Breaking through it would flip the short-term trend back toward buyers.

Clearing that band would open a path to the next resistance near $82,000. A move there would mark a genuine recovery attempt.

The picture below is less comfortable. The first support does not appear until about $65,000, which leaves a wide gap under the current price.

If that floor gives way, the next one waits near $63,000. Losing both would confirm that sellers have taken full control of the trend.

Two Paths for the Next 72 Hours

Any fresh Mercado Bitcoin update, such as a withdrawal restart date, could tip the next move.

• Bullish: A daily close above $80K would put the 50-day line behind buyers and bring $82K into view. The setup fails if price drops back below the 200-day average, since that would show the rally had no footing.
• Bearish: Staying under the 200-day average keeps sellers in charge and leaves the road open toward $65K. This view breaks if Bitcoin reclaims the 50-day average, which would turn that ceiling into a floor.

Custody Scare Meets a Chart Already Leaning Lower

Bitcoin remains in a seller-led correction until it climbs back over its 50-day average. The Mercado Bitcoin breach adds a drag on sentiment that a weak chart cannot easily absorb.

The main risk is news that makes the hack look worse. Confirmed losses above current estimates or a longer delay before full reopening could speed up selling toward support levels with little cushion beneath them.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.