A Close Under Support Would Open a 13% Drop Toward HYPE's Next Floor

Three Things to Know

• ICE plans a U.S. market for HYPE perps, and a late regulatory caveat cooled the excitement.
• HYPE still trades above its key moving averages, and momentum readings favor buyers.
• A daily close below support near $85 would expose the late-October low.

The owner of the New York Stock Exchange wants to list Hyperliquid perpetual futures in the U.S. A quick amendment then tied the plan to regulators, and big holders sold into the news.

For HYPE, the timing is tricky. The token has rebounded hard this week. Fresh supply from a recent unlock and whale exits now test that recovery.

ICE Plans a U.S. Venue for Hyperliquid Perps, Then Adds a Caveat

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) disclosed the plan on October 29. The venue would run through trade(xyz), a platform that investor Stan Druckenmiller has publicly backed. HYPE jumped to $95 that day, up about 18% in 24 hours.

ICE later amended its announcement to add the phrase "Subject to regulatory approvals." The CFTC controls the timing, and the exchange has given no launch date. That turned a firm plan into a possible one.

Large holders sold quickly after the revision. One wallet sold 912,383 HYPE for about $82 million, on-chain data tracked by Lookonchain shows. A second wallet dumped 296,705 HYPE for roughly $27 million.

Other buyers did not step in. U.S. HYPE ETFs recorded zero flows on October 30. The Assistance Fund buys HYPE with trading fees, so fee volume caps its support.

The wider market offered little help. Bitcoin is down about 8% for the month and 11% in 2026. A $6.3 billion Binance hack also began on October 29.

HYPE Holds Above Its 50-Day Average After a Sharp Weekly Rebound

HYPE traded near $87.66 on Sunday, flat on the day. The token has gained about 15% in a week, a strong rebound after the late-October slide.

That price keeps HYPE above its 50-day moving average, which sits near $82.85. A moving average smooths out daily swings to show the underlying trend. When price holds above it, the average tends to act as a floor.

The 200-day average sits much lower, around $68.97. That gap shows the longer trend still favors buyers, even after the whale selling.

Over 30 days, HYPE is still down about 2%. The weekly jump repaired earlier losses but has not yet carried the token to new ground.

Supply adds another hurdle. A token unlock lifted circulating supply from roughly 222 million to about 239 million by October 28.

The record high of $98, set on September 23, now demands a larger market cap than it did then. Buyers need fresh demand to absorb the new tokens before they can retest that peak.

Buyers Still Lead, Though Not at Overheated Levels

RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, reads about 59 on the daily chart. That is firm territory, well short of the 70 mark where a rally starts to look overheated. Buyers have room to push further before the move looks stretched.

Other momentum signals agree. The MACD sits above its signal line, which means recent momentum is still pointing up. Trend strength readings also confirm a real trend, and buyers are the ones leading it.

HYPE stopped climbing over the past 24 hours as traders weighed the ICE plan against its new regulatory caveat. That pause looks like digestion so far. Neither side has taken control.

$84.64 Becomes the Line Bulls Must Hold

Support sits near $84.64, just above the 50-day average. The two levels form a narrow cushion under the current price. A daily close below that line would break the floor that has held the rebound together.

The next support waits near $76.15, last month's low. That level sits about 13% under where HYPE trades now. Losing the nearest floor would leave little on the daily chart to slow a slide back there.

Overhead, resistance stands near $95.25. That is the peak from the day the ICE plan surfaced. Sellers stepped in hard at that level once, so buyers need conviction to push through it.

A second ceiling sits near $97.74, just under the record. Clearing both levels would put the round $100 mark in play for the first time.

What Decides the Next 72 Hours

Two daily closes will likely set HYPE's direction this week.

• Bullish: A close above the October 29 peak would show buyers can absorb the whale supply. That opens a run at the second ceiling just under the record. A close back below the nearest support would cancel this setup and hand control to sellers.
• Bearish: A daily close under the nearest support would also break the cushion above the 50-day average. That points to a retest of the late-October low. A recovery above the spike high would invalidate this path and revive the uptrend.

Trend Intact but Leaning on One Level

The bias stays cautiously bullish as long as HYPE holds its nearest floor. Momentum and trend readings still favor buyers.

The CFTC sets the timing on the ICE venue, and any delay could sour sentiment. Another large wallet sale could also push the token through support before buyers react.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.