Hedera Gives Back Its IBM Rally — Here's the Level HBAR Needs to Hold

HBAR’s sharp late-September advance has largely unwound, putting the focus back on whether buyers can defend the first support beneath the market. The token rose 27.32% on September 28 to an intraday high near $0.1310, before falling 16.09% the following day as sellers reversed most of the move, according to Crypto Daily.

The rally was tied to reports that an identity platform built on Hedera had reached IBM Cloud, adding force to the network’s enterprise-adoption narrative. WalletInvestor reported on that development on September 29.

Daily spot was $0.1024 on October 2, per Blockspot. That leaves HBAR at a technically sensitive point: short-term momentum readings remain constructive, but the price is sitting at the nearest identified support after a news-driven reversal.

Daily indicators retain short-term bullish momentum despite the reversal

The daily RSI (14) stood at 59.4 on October 2. Blockspot classed the reading as bullish, while noting that it remained below the conventional 70 overbought threshold. In practical terms, the indicator does not show the kind of extreme daily reading that would by itself signal an overheated market, even after the late-September surge.

Momentum also remains positive on the supplied MACD reading. The daily MACD (12/26/9) was 0.0074, above its 0.0064 signal line, a bullish alignment in the source data. The short-term exponential moving averages point in the same direction: the 12-day EMA was $0.0987, above the 26-day EMA at $0.0913.

Those measures matter because HBAR is now trading above both of those cited short-term EMA readings despite giving back a substantial portion of the rally. They support the case that the pullback has not yet erased all near-term upside momentum. They do not, however, settle the broader trend question.

The longer moving-average structure remains weaker. Blockspot placed the 50-day SMA at $0.0814 and the 200-day SMA at $0.0818, describing their relationship as a death cross. That bearish longer-term configuration sits uneasily alongside the bullish RSI, MACD and EMA signals, making the daily setup mixed rather than a clean continuation signal.

The reversal also followed without a further Hedera announcement, according to CryptoTicker, which said the move appeared more connected to positioning and news momentum than to a fresh protocol update. As a result, a hold at support would carry more weight than the indicators alone: it would show that buyers can absorb the post-headline selling.

HBAR support at $0.1024 and $0.1007 faces resistance at $0.1048

At $0.1024, HBAR is directly on the nearest support and daily pivot or cluster level identified by Coinotag. This is the first level the market needs to respect after the reversal. The next nearby buffer is the $0.1010-$0.1007 zone, identified following the rally pullback; $0.1007 is also listed as daily S1 in the supplied data.

On the upside, $0.1048 is the first obstacle because it is the closest marked resistance to current spot. The level is based on a confluence of pivot, Fibonacci, moving-average and volume-profile clustering in Coinotag’s analysis. A sustained move above it would improve the market’s ability to test $0.1094, the initial resistance noted by Crypto Daily when HBAR was reported near $0.1064 on October 1.

Above that, $0.1107 is the next cited barrier, followed by $0.1152. Those are not forecasts or assured destinations; they are the supplied levels that would need to be cleared for the rebound to extend beyond the immediate post-selloff range.

The downside path is more immediate. Coinotag specifically said that a daily close below $0.1024 would weaken the bullish setup. If that pivot fails, the $0.1010-$0.1007 area becomes the more important test. Losing that zone would leave $0.0958, the daily S3 pivot and strongest support in the cited pivot set, as the next supplied support level.

HBAR price prediction: holding the post-IBM rally support is the first requirement

The near-term HBAR price prediction is conditional rather than decisive. The daily RSI at 59.4, MACD above its signal line, and the bullish 12/26 EMA alignment leave room for a recovery attempt. But the long-term SMA relationship remains bearish, while the original rally was quickly reversed without another Hedera announcement.

For the recovery case to remain credible, HBAR needs first to hold $0.1024 on a daily basis. More importantly, buyers would need to preserve the $0.1010-$0.1007 support zone if the nearest pivot comes under pressure. Defending that band would keep the short-term momentum signals relevant and prevent the pullback from developing into a deeper technical breakdown.

A move back through $0.1048 would be the first indication that buyers are regaining control after the selloff. Reclaiming that resistance would then put attention on $0.1094 and $0.1107. The $0.1152 level is the next supplied resistance beyond those barriers, but reaching it would require HBAR to overcome each nearer level rather than simply revisit the September 28 move.

Conversely, a daily close below $0.1024 would weaken the bullish thesis, as the cited technical analysis indicates. A failure to hold $0.1010-$0.1007 would further undermine the argument that the IBM Cloud-linked rally has established a durable floor, shifting attention to $0.0958 instead.

For now, the title question has a straightforward answer: $0.1024 is HBAR’s immediate level to hold, with $0.1010-$0.1007 the more consequential support area beneath it. The IBM Cloud-linked news supplied the catalyst for the late-September jump, but spot’s position at $0.1024 means the next directional signal is likely to come from whether that support survives and whether price can reclaim $0.1048.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.