Bitcoin traders are confused as to the direction of the market as BTC/USD has been trading sideways for a long time. This usually gets too boring for most traders and they assume this means the market has run out of steam and is ready to keel over. While we do expect a major crash in Bitcoin, one that would probably put the crash from March to shame, it is important to realize that it is not going to happen when everyone is expecting it.-
Crypto Twitter plays a major role in shaping retail sentiment in this market. We have noticed that over the past few days, most big accounts with large following that used to be overly bullish have now turned really bearish. This is now defining the consensus and most retail traders are turning bearish expecting further downside. In my opinion, this is a cause for concern and we should be prepared for a bear trap before the actual downtrend begins.
The price remains within the larger symmetrical triangle and until and unless we have a decisive break below it, there is a strong probability that we could see another move to shake out the bears before we actually go down. This is tiring for most traders who are just waiting to pull the trigger and pick a side no matter which one it is. While the price is very likely to test $9.5k near term, it is important to realize that the larger trend is bearish. The S&P 500 (SPX) has found support around the 50 EMA on the 4H time frame but that does not change much. It only means that the downtrend is delayed and we would have to wait a while longer. That also means that we will not be shorting either the stock market or the cryptocurrency market unless we have confirmation of a bearish breakdown.