Bitcoin bulls are getting ready to push the price out of the ascending triangle towards $9.4k or higher levels. We have been expecting another retest of the trend line resistance and that seems to be in the making this time. The bulls are confident and are ready to put up a fight this time. The bears, who until recently have been very complacent, are beginning to worry now that the bullish momentum has returned.
We have long warned against shorting Bitcoin without confirmation. Chasing tops or bottoms is never worth it and it leads to deep losses most of the time. This final shakeout could inflict more pain on the bears and give the bulls more hope to trap more of the them before the actual downtrend begins. Our long-term views remain the same and we expect BTC/USD to crash as it did in March when it broke below the larger symmetrical triangle.
The S&P 500 (SPX) has rallied as well and is now on the way to our target of 3,173. This does not change the long-term outlook of the index as we expect a sharp downtrend to begin soon after. Positive Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) numbers today indicating a gain of 4.8 million jobs in June is also expected to help the bullish case near-term. For now, EUR/USD appears to have found strength on shorter time frames, but the big picture tells us that the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) is on the verge of one of its most aggressive uptrends in the history of the US Dollar (USD).