Bitcoin came into existence as something that would remedy the ills of fractional reserve banking after the financial crisis of 2008-09. Most new investors that found out about it never asked too many questions as for most of them it was about more than just an investment; it was about a vision. Unfortunately, all of that got lost when we saw groups after groups of quick buck artists and conmen distort Satoshi’s vision. Many Bitcoin traders and investors are bullish long term because they see Bitcoin as something that could become a global currency, at least for the masses if not for the central banks.
However, most of them are so caught up in their bullish bias that they fail to realize that Bitcoin is no longer what it used to be. There is a small group of people comprising of miners, exchanges, whales and market makers that control everything. This is why more than 90% of the trading volume on exchanges is fake. Now that Bitcoin halving has slashed mining rewards in half, Bitcoin faces the threat of a death spiral as miners are losing money mining at current price. The hash rate has already dropped more than 30% since halving and the mempool keeps getting clogged up as miners are not mining blocks as frequently as they used to before halving now that rewards have halved.
The threat of a Bitcoin death spiral is very real. If miners are finding it hard to mine blocks while BTC/USD it above $9k, imagine what could happen if it declines to $7.6k or worse decline much lower as we expect it to. This is not a pretty picture and most Bitcoin gurus are avoiding it on purpose because they are too heavily invested. The same goes for miners who are also overly leveraged this time. In addition to that, Bitcoin SV (BSV) might have its own plans for taking advantage of this situation. We have previously seen Dr. Craig Wright make big moves in the market. It would not be surprising if he does that again.
At the moment, it seems that all odds are stacked up against Bitcoin. The price of Gold (XAU/USD) broke below a rising wedge and is now at risk of a major decline. Previously, a sharp decline in Gold let to a sharp decline in Bitcoin that saw it crash to $3.8k. The S&P 500 (SPX) is also primed for a major correction at this point. All of these factors together paint a really gloomy picture for Bitcoin in the weeks and months ahead. I expect Bitcoin to decline down to $1k-$3k this year but after recent developments, I would not be surprised if we see it fall down to triple digits.