The stock market seems to be playing out exactly as we predicted. The S&P 500 (SPX) seems all set to test the 61.8% fib retracement level once again. This would lead to similar near-term bullishness in the cryptocurrency market. We expect BTC/USD to climb past $8k to test $8.4k-$9k before the next major decline. This would end up filling the CME futures gap and then Bitcoin could enter a prolonged bear trend. This might also be one of the most brutal bull traps in Bitcoin history just around halving which gives the market makers and whales the perfect opportunity to prey on overly enthusiastic retail traders.
The most probable scenario here is that we would see the cryptocurrency market rally before halving. A few green candles would end up turning the majority of retail traders bullish and soon they would be jumping in front of those big green candles so they don’t end up missing out. The unfortunate really is that they would only be getting in to that major bull trap which might be far more devastating this time. A lot of traders in this market still think that Bitcoin could turn out to be a safe haven asset or digital gold despite solid evidence suggesting otherwise. We have seen throughout stock market declines that Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market has had a very hard time holding its ground.
This time, the situation might turn out to be a lot worse considering we are now looking at the first bear trend in the stock market since the financial crisis of 2008-09. So far, traders in the cryptocurrency market haven’t had much of a problem holding on for dear life (hodling) because the stock market has been in an uptrend since the inception of Bitcoin. However, this time we have a different situation. If the stock market enters a bear market, our target of $1k/Bitcoin is going to start looking a lot reasonable because it could get a lot worse than that. There is no reason to think that what happened to WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) could not happen to Bitcoin. Even under the bullish case, we expect BTC/USD to decline down to $1k to test the previous top as it has during previous market cycles. However, if we enter a bear market, then things might get out of hand and Bitcoin could end up crashing a lot lower than that before it recovers, if it ever does.