Potential EUR/USD Bearish Reversal Spells Trouble For Bitcoin (BTC) 

The EUR/USD forex pair has faced a strong rejection at the 61.8% fib level. There is now the strong probability of a decline not only down to the 78.6% fib level but much lower down to the 1.272 fib level and potentially lower. The next move in Bitcoin (BTC) hinges on this as Bitcoin (BTC) is directly paired to the US Dollar on most exchanges. If this pair goes down that means the price of Bitcoin (BTC) also goes down in dollar terms. The 200 moving average on the 12H time frame for EUR/USD is going to be momentous and will determine where BTC/USD is headed in the near future. 

The previous such decline lead to a massive downtrend and it is expected that the same would happen this time if the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is to continue. The rally could get overextended near term if EUR/USD breaks past the 61.8% fib level but that seems extremely unlikely. Meanwhile, BTC/USD is awaiting its next big move and remains undecisive. The same can be said about the EUR/USD forex pair as we have not seen a clear decline or a break past the resistance so far. The stock market will be influenced for the most part by political events like Super Tuesday. The recent event that saw Pete Buttigieg getting out the presidential race may help the index rally today as it is perceived that this might help Joe Biden in Super Tuesday. 

The 12H chart for BTC/USD looks as confusing as it gets. One the one hand, we have the price trading above a key trend line on which it has now found support. The price also remains above the 38.2% fib level as well as the 200 moving average on the 12H time frame. This also seems bullish but we cannot just ignore the bearish case. 

On the other hand, we have the price struggling to break past the 200 EMA on the 12 H time frame and it has failed miserably. The RSI also shows a clear downtrend that could see BTC/USD decline below this key trend line and if that happens, we can expect the price to easily decline down to $7.7k and potentially lower. The real dilemma facing BTC/USD now is whether it will hit $9.2k now or later. If it doesn’t break past the 200 EMA on the 12H time frame, we might be looking at a decline much lower than $8.2k in the days and weeks ahead.