Bitcoin has been trading sideways this whole time and that is because the cryptocurrency market cannot make the next big decision on its own. The recent moves in BTC/USD have been getting both the bulls and the bears excited but the price has practically gotten nowhere. The 12H chart shows that BTC/USD is still trading below the 200 EMA and waiting for the next big move. Meanwhile, ETH/USD remains above the 100 EMA on the 12H time frame. This shows how much the cryptocurrency market depends on the stock market to make decisive moves.
The next major move in the stock market is going to be momentous. The daily chart for the S&P 500 (SPX) shows how the index closed the last trading day in the green and therefore now has the potential to rally higher towards the 200-day moving average. It is important to note that Mayor Pete’s backing out of the presidential race is likely to reflect into the price action today as the stock market opens because it will be perceived as a good development for Joe Biden whom Wall Street is counting on to get the nomination. At the moment, Joe Biden has Wall Street excited again after his recent win and now with this having a possible impact on Super Tuesday, we can see this translate into a rally in the stock market.
So far, Bitcoin’s outlook remains bearish. As long as we don’t see a close above the 200-day moving average, it is reasonable to say that the price could decline further. However, in case we get a close above the 200-day moving average, things might change short-term. The S&P 500 (SPX) would have a lot to do with something like that. The EUR/USD forex pair has also broken past the 200-day moving average today and could close the day above it. If that happens, the big players in this market would have good reason to pump the price higher.
It is important to realize though that no matter how high BTC/USD or the rest of the market goes near-term, it is going to be short-lived. This is just the stock market seeing a relief rally after the devastating correction which will be reflected in other markets. It is nothing to count on for a long-term uptrend as there are a lot of uncertainties that financial markets are headed against. The coronavirus situation is one of those and as the situation keeps on worsening. The Democratic primaries and then the US election are other uncertainties. So, the stock market may see some relief near-term and so might Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies but things do not look good if we take a step back and look at the big picture.