Why Bitcoin (BTC) Might Have Topped Out

Why Bitcoin (BTC) Might Have Topped Out

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally declined below the $10k level and now risks further downside in the days and weeks ahead. The 4H chart for BTC/USD exposes the blatant manipulation in this market demonstrated by how precisely an algorithm has been printing the two parabolic rallies. The first rally as we can see on the chart took 193 days to come to completion. A comparison of two similar fractals from both rallies indicates that the current rally is shorter than the previous one by a factor of 3.67. This means that the ongoing rally should take around 53 days to come to completion which is exactly what has happened. Is this a coincidence? I don’t think so. We have known for a long time that most trading on cryptocurrency exchanges is fake with bots trading among each other. 

It is very alarming to see how an algorithm has so precisely printed a fractal. This is a testament to the level of influence a few big players have on this entire market. It is no wonder that Wall Street is not taking this market seriously, at least not yet. It is for the same reason that the banks are not worried about cryptocurrencies putting them out of business. They understand quite well what is going on and how it is going to end. We do not know if Bitcoin (BTC) will exist in 10-15 years from now but what we do know is that it would have paved the way for central banks issued digital currencies. The whales and the market makers couldn’t have picked a better time to do what they are about to do next. Even as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) declines, the majority of retail traders will remain optimistic because of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. 

The daily chart for the S&P 500 (SPX) shows how the index may just have formed a double topped. The last time it did that, we saw an aggressive correction. It has happened many a time in the past. While we do not know the magnitude of the correction this time, it is reasonable to assume that it might at least decline down to the 200-day moving average if not lower. 

A decline in the stock market has historically had a brutal impact on the cryptocurrency market. All the times that we have seen the S&P 500 (SPX) form a double top and decline in the recent past, we have seen the cryptocurrency market do the same. Bitcoin (BTC) has unnerved some traders now that it has suddenly dropped below $10k but the real panic will ensue once it liquidates a large number of long positions with stops around $9.7k and lower. 

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