Bitcoin Traders To Make The Decision 

Bitcoin Traders To Make The Decision 

Bitcoin traders have to make the decision now. What is this decision? It is deciding to be bullish or bearish on the market. You do not have to margin trade to take that decision. If you are holding coins, you are being bullish. If you are not holding coins, you are being bearish. You are inherently making a decision whether you are taking action or not. The reason it is now time to make the decision is because BTC/USD is at a turning point. Now that it has faced rejection at the previously broken market structure around $9.5k and begun its decline, you are inherently expecting one of two things. 

Either you are expecting a decline below the 200-day moving average to much lower levels or you are expecting the price to find support above the 200-day moving average to rally higher. Either way, you are making a decision. If the price declines below the 200-day moving average, I would expect something like June-July of 2014 to unfold because I already see the price printing the same fractal as it did back then. My only concern at that point would be the extent of the correction. If it is a full-scale correction as we have seen before, then I see Bitcoin declining down to $1,000 in order to test the previous peak because that is what it did during the previous market cycle. 

The next big move in the cryptocurrency market hinges on the outlook of the S&P 500 (SPX). We expect a lot of volatility in this index in the near future because of the Democratic presidential primaries as well as the Trump impeachment trial in the Senate. Both of these events are likely to induce big movements in the stock market and therefore in the cryptocurrency market. Regardless of the outcome of the next election, I expect the stock market to go through a correction if not a crash which could trigger a similar decline in the cryptocurrency market. 

We can see that WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) shares a similar outlook. If we see it plunge below the symmetrical triangle, it will repeat something like it did in June-July of 2014 which further strengthens our view of how the cryptocurrency market could decline in the event of a potential correction in the stock and commodities markets. For now, both markets are at a decision point. The reaction to Coronavirus seemed to be short-lived and the outlook of these markets is now more dependent on what happens on the political and economic scene. As for Bitcoin (BTC), we know that a further decline in the EUR/USD forex pair would bring the price down. There is also the strong probability of central banks issuing their own digital currencies which could accelerate Bitcoin’s downtrend in the weeks and months ahead.

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