Why The Next Oil Supply Boom Might Drive Bitcoin (BTC) Into The Ground

Why The Next Oil Supply Boom Might Drive Bitcoin (BTC) Into The Ground

The infamous oil crash of 2014-15 is known to many of us who have been following traditional markets around the time. However, the majority of Bitcoin (BTC) investors who see the cryptocurrency market as a standalone market with no correlation to other markets with the possible exception of gold find it hard to see that there actually was a correlation between Oil and Bitcoin (BTC) back then. When WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) started to decline in June, 2014 we saw BTC/USD begin an aggressive downtrend that lasted till early 2015. We have seen multiple downtrends in between and a correlation between Oil and Bitcoin (BTC). Even recently when tensions rose between US and Iran over the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, we saw a rise in the price of WTI Crude Oil (USOil) and therefore in BTC/USD. 

Tensions between Iran and the United States have eased in a manner no one expected. After the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, fears that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz began to surface. This strait is an important chokepoint key to oil commerce which would have serious implications for oil supply especially for countries like China. The fact that US-China relations have been deteriorating was yet another reason to think that maybe the US wanted to push Iran into making a move like that. However, all of that has now taken a 180 degrees turn as both the United States and Iran have made it abundantly clear that they do not want further escalation. This is why oil prices declined and the bullish optimism died down. Around the same time that oil prices crashed, we saw a crash in the cryptocurrency market as well. 

We know now that the cryptocurrency market is not immune to developments in larger financial markets. However, there are reasons more than an oil supply boom to think that BTC/USD might be headed lower in the weeks and months ahead. As of now, the majority of cryptocurrency traders are too optimistic and expect a major parabolic rally in the market before the next halving. However, ground realities state otherwise. 

A quick glance at the BTC/USD chart on the weekly time frame shows us what exactly Bitcoin stands to lose during the next decline. If we see the price break below the key trend line support it is currently trading atop, it could easily decline down to the 200-week moving average and potentially much lower. This would be extremely devastating for the entire cryptocurrency market and as always altcoins would be hit the hardest. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) will then have to test the current trend line support as trend line resistance most likely in years from now. However, before that happens, it will see a brutal decline and if oil prices are falling around the same time, we might see BTC/USD crash below the 200-week moving average to find a bottom somewhere between $1,200 and $1,800. 

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