Bitcoin is moving up and down between $8,800 and $8,600 but looking at the BTC/USD chart, it is not easy to ascertain where it might be headed next. The reason why is because this market is one of the most highly manipulated and controlled market there is. In many ways, it is even worse than penny stocks. There are countless cases of manipulation in this market and there will be many more in the future. However, that is not to say that we cannot get an idea as to how and when a particular pump or dump could happen in this market. In fact, we have been successfully calling most such pumps and dumps in the past and we didn’t do it by looking at the BTC/USD or ETH/USD chart.
The key to understanding any market is to first realize who the big players are and what their goals are. Once you understand that, you would know what to look for because most of the time when they make their moves, they leave marks. To better understand that, let us take a look at the daily chart for USDC/USDT. We can see right away that the ratio is seldom 1 to 1. There is always a difference. The same goes for USDT and USDC against the US Dollar. They are always more or less than one dollar. However, there are periods of wild swings that are of immense significance. If we look at the three peaks on the USDC/USDT chart, we can see that every one of those major peaks has coincided with a top in BTC/USD.
So, what does this really mean? To put it quite simply, it means that these rallies were fueled by Tether (USDT) pumps. The reason USDC/USDT registered such abnormally high peaks was due to the fact that a ton of Tether was printed and injected in the market. This is no different than the Fed printing more paper. However, in the case of Tether (USDT) we can instantly see the results on the USDC/USDT chart. So, when the price was ready to decline, we saw that the Tether (USDT) pump had been exhausted and a peak had been printed. This would have been a really good indicator to determine where to get out of the market and it will continue to be in the future.
Another useful indicator is the Longs/Shorts ratio on Binance Futures. We have been previously using the one from Bitfinex for a long time but the fact that so many people started to use it rendered it absolutely useless. The one on Binance however is very effective and is working so far. We can see for ourselves how every rally in the BTCUSDLongs/BTCUSDShorts ratio has coincided with a sharp decline in the market. What does this mean? It means that the majority is always wrong in financial markets. What is the majority expecting in this market? A bull run before the next halving.