Bitcoin (BTC) Is At The Most Important Decision Point Since 2018

Bitcoin (BTC) Is At The Most Important Decision Point Since 2018

Bitcoin (BTC) is at the most important decision point in more than a year. We can see on the daily chart for BTC/USD that the price will either have to break past the trend line resistance and the 38.2% fib level at $8,092 to begin a new bullish cycle or it will have to decline down to the 61.8% fib level at $5,783 and eventually much lower to complete a correction. This is once again a point where the bulls and the bears are extremely divided. Recent developments in the Middle East gave Gold (XAU/USD) a reason to rally which in turn gave the big players in this market a reason to prop the price out while they run for the exit. Meanwhile, they continue to portray Bitcoin (BTC) as digital gold and it is no surprise that we keep hearing all about it on the mainstream media. 

We can see on the RSI on the daily chart that BTC/USD has once again run into a key trend line resistance. Although trend lines are not generally accurate indicators of how and when the price could face rejection or break past a certain level, they do provide a good general idea. In this case, we can see that the RSI already faced two such rejections before leading to major downside. This time however, a rejection is likely to lead to a crash below the key trend line support that we see on this chart that extends all the way back to December, 2018. Most of the euphoria has to do with excitement before Bitcoin (BTC)’s next halving. The majority of retail traders seem to think the market will rally hard before the next halving and therefore greed is returning back to the market. 

Bitcoin bears need to realize that this rally could extend further short-term. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) could revisit the $8k territory again and it could print all sorts of misleading pumps before that next downtrend kicks in because that is going to be the most critical downtrend since 2018. This is a really big development and needs to be acknowledged as such. Meanwhile, BTCUSDLongs/BTCUSDShorts has rallied again and could test the 161.8% fib retracement level once more. 

When the stakes are this high, no fair play is to be expected. The pre halving excitement gives the big players more opportunities to get out of the market on good prices. It is when those players exit the market that retail traders and investors will truly realize how much of a correlation Bitcoin (BTC) truly had with Gold (XAU/USD). A cryptocurrency that shoots up 43% in two days and then loses more than 50% in value two months after is not a safe haven asset, but let’s just set all of this aside for a minute and think about something. Everyone and their mother is thinking about the cryptocurrency market making a huge rally before the next halving. What do you think are the odds of that coming to fruition when everyone is expecting it? 

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