Bitcoin (BTC) is trading with a large symmetrical triangle which is now close to being broken. Whether you’re bullish or bearish, you expect the price to break out a certain way out of this triangle. During the past few days, the price struggled to close above the $10,643 mark. This is because that is the 38.2% fib extension level from the beginning of the rally towards the top of the symmetrical triangle in June, 2019. If the price were to break below this symmetrical triangle as we expect it to, Bitcoin (BTC) would find support around a series of Fibonacci extension levels short term but ultimately it has to decline a lot lower. The first decline would be to the 61.8% fib extension level from here and eventually we will see it decline to the $5,365 support on the daily chart to complete a 50% correction.
This correction is something a lot of the bears and even some percentage of the bulls are agreed upon. The bears expect the price to decline this much and some bulls think the same. They see the price declining to low $5,000s before it begins its new bullish cycle. In my opinion, this is the end of the line for Bitcoin (BTC) and once it declines below the 61.8% fib extension level and declines below $9,000, I think we should make our peace with the fact that it could decline much lower. The daily chart for BTC/USD shows us that there is plenty of room for correction after the parabolic advance even under the bullish case. However, if we are being bearish and consider the bear market to be not over yet, then the most probable scenario would be a 2014 styled correction which would lead to an 80% decline at least before the price bottoms.
The daily chart for Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) shows that the dominance keeps on rising and there is not much left to imagination as to what is going to happen here. The only way Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) would be rising was if we were to see further downside in the market. Confidence in altcoins is already too low and it is going to get a lot worse than that as Bitcoin (BTC) breaks below the symmetrical triangle in the weeks and months ahead.
As for Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), it has broken well above the ascending triangle which will now be used as support for future big moves to the upside. Considering that Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is still above the 21 day EMA and the bullish momentum remains strong, I expect this rising dominance to inflict further pain on the altcoin market. As the market starts to decline again, confidence in altcoins will reach the lowest and we might see a lot of altcoins go out of business. So, expect more exchange hacks, more regulatory crackdowns and bans in the weeks ahead because these are just alibis that the market makers use to justify big crashes.