Bitcoin (BTC) has finally declined below $10,000. We called this move the day before yesterday in our analysis on Bitcoin (BTC). We said that BTC/USD could plunge below $10,000 in the weeks ahead and it has finally happened. I have to say that I expected this to take at least two weeks but it happened a lot sooner when the price broke below our fib circle. It has now declined to the bottom of a descending triangle and its next move from here is expected to be to the upside. It is very unlikely to fall straight towards the next fib circle from here without testing the top of the descending triangle again.
If we take a look at the Longs vs. Shorts stats for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), we can see that things have changed. Bitcoin (BTC) Longs are down from 70% and Ethereum (ETH) longs are down from 80%. Meanwhile, shorts have increased. As the market continues to decline in the months ahead, we are going to see the shorts get more confident while the longs will get discouraged. Times like these are an opportunity for market makers and whales to introduce some of their holdings into the market for the retail traders to buy up before the price plunges further. For large investors it is a particularly good opportunity because it means they can offload their bags while the price recovers short term.
The Fear and Greed Index is now at 13 (Extreme Fear). For the average retail trader, this is a signal to panic sell but to contrarian traders this is an opportunity to accumulate short term. Needless to say, we are not done here and BTC/USD will fall hard from here in the months ahead as it breaks below the descending triangle and falls to the next fib circle. However, short term this is an opportunity to profit and to unload long term holdings. Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the market is going down hard in the months ahead and all of that is perfectly in line with what is happening in larger markets.
If we take a look at the 20+ years treasury bonds (TLT), we can see that we have not seen a monthly rally like this since 2012. This is extremely significant as it denotes an extreme lack of confidence in the market. The S&P 500 (SPX) and the 20+ years treasury bonds (TLT) have an interesting relationship. Most of the time when long term treasury bonds decline, it is a sign of loss of confidence in short term yields and as a result the market tumbles. Similarly, the S&P 500 rallies when long term treasury bonds decline. This relationship is affected by a lot of other variables so it does not always appear to be true but this relationship holds true nonetheless in the absence of external factors. The rise of interest in long term treasury bonds does not bode well for the stock market, the S&P 500 and the cryptocurrency market. If you are more interested to see how Bitcoin (BTC) is affected by movements in traditional markets, you are encouraged to read our last analysis on BTC/USD.