Bitcoin (BTC) made its third attempt to breakout today and failed miserably as shown by the daily chart for BTC/USD. This rejection was a lot stronger than the one that preceded it. However, the way the price faced rejection when it tested the trend line resistance a few days back was enough to conclude that this rally did not have the momentum to continue before a retracement. We still believe that BTC/USD might make one last move to the upside before the imminent correction that would see the price fall to a new low in 2019. Bitmex CEO, Arthur Hayes recently said that Bitcoin (BTC) could drop to $2,000. While I do not believe the price might end up falling that low, I would not be surprised if it breaks below the 200 week moving average. If the price ends up closing below the 200 Week MA, anything is possible.
Considering that Bitcoin (BTC) still has one last move to make to the upside before entering another correction, we should expect that a retracement to the 21 day exponential moving average is imminent in the short term. This retracement is unlikely to be a straight drop and will more likely be a sideways consolidation which will ultimately result in the price touching the 21 Day EMA. This next move is likely to propel Bitcoin (BTC) towards $4,500 but there is a strong probability that the price may not stay there for long as the recent rally has made it clear that the bear trend is not over yet. The RSI and Stochastic RSI have both reached overbought conditions and signal a decline in price over the days and weeks ahead.
The bearish resolve has also been terribly weakened as BTCUSDShorts has fallen below a critical trend line support for the first time in more than 14 months. This is a big development that could explain why the bulls are feeling so confident all of a sudden. However, BTCUSDShorts is reluctant to continue trading down the descending channel and may retest the previous trend line support in the near future. That being said, it is clear the bears have had their run same as the bulls did just before the beginning of the bear market. The next drop from here may not be as straightforward and a lot of retail bears may not be able to capitalize on that.
The bearish resolve is significantly weakened at this point and the bulls are feeling confident short term, but the whales are running the show. They are going to allow the bulls to fall perfectly in the bull trap over the next few days and weeks after which they are going to pull the plugs. This is likely to catch both the bulls and the bears off-guard, which means a lot of blood will be spilled and the whales will come out as the only victors. However, those that are able to manage risk wisely and accumulate at lower levels without being greedy to margin trade for quick profits might find themselves in the same spot as the whales in the long term.