Bitcoin (BTC) crashed hard the past few days. Most analysts and investors were quick to call it the final wave of capitulation. For a moment, it seemed to be the final wave of capitulation. However, soon afterwards Bitcoin (BTC) printed a pattern which is not a common sight in the crypto markets. The above 4H chart for BTC/USD is as bearish as a sell setup could get. The price has formed a very obvious bear flag the past few days. However, if it were the whole story, we might still have significant hope of a recovery from current levels considering Bitcoin (BTC) nosedived continuously for a long time and reached oversold conditions.
The RSI for the BTC/USD 4H chart presents an even more alarming picture. We see a bear flag being formed by the RSI which could come to fruition at the same time BTC/USD reaches the end of the bear flag. By that time, the conditions would be ripe for a final but more devastating fall for Bitcoin (BTC). Many in the crypto community still think that the price could fall to $4,000 or lower levels. However, the probability of that happening at this stage remains low. That being said, the probability of a fall to $5,000 is extremely high. Even though we remain bullish on the long term outlook of Bitcoin (BTC), there is not enough bullish momentum to turn the market around at this stage. The bears seem far more confident and have once again assumed control.
The bulls seem overly scared that the market may see an extended correction. The vast majority of institutional investors and family offices do not buy cryptocurrencies on exchanges. They buy on over the counter (OTC) markets so their activities are not going to influence the price of Bitcoin (BTC). The only thing that is going to influence the price of Bitcoin (BTC) at these levels is retail buyers. So far, most of them are not convinced that the market is ready for a reversal. Recently, the SEC stated its intention to crack down on ICOs which has led to a fresh wave of panic in the market.
The price action clearly shows that the Bitcoin (BTC) bulls failed to take the price above $5,560 despite numerous attempts over the last two days. The RSI has now entered overbought territory. This means that if the rest of the conditions remain the same, BTC/USD is expected to fall further in the next 24 hours. There is a high probability that this last fall might be the final wave of capitulation we have all been waiting for. This fall might also push most altcoins to yearly lows and would present a good opportunity for some long term accumulation. All things considered, November may be the final month of correction for Bitcoin (BTC). A lot of industry leaders have recently lowered their yearend price targets for Bitcoin (BTC). The latest statement in this regard came from Tom Lee who lowered his price target for Bitcoin (BTC) to $15,000 by EOY.