Why Bitcoin (BTC) Can’t Fall Below $5,800

Bitcoin (BTC) cannot fall below $5,800. There, I said it. It might not be possible to say what price Bitcoin (BTC) might reach by the end of the year. That is because one will have to speculate. However, to see if Bitcoin (BTC) can fall below a certain level, there is no need for speculation. We have plenty of historical data to base our analysis on. There are two straightforward charts that form the basis of this analysis. The first chart is the above weekly chart for BTC/USD. The two lines drawn on the chart form part of the hypothesis that Bitcoin (BTC) cannot fall below $5,800. Later in this analysis we will test this hypothesis, but first let us examine it in detail. The yellow line on the chart was once a critical support for Bitcoin (BTC) in 2014. Bitcoin (BTC) broke this support and plunged below it. As a result, this support turned into a resistance. As, we can see Bitcoin (BTC) bumped into this resistance around $20,000 and declined steadily afterwards. This establishes the significance of historical levels. Anyone with access to a Bitcoin (BTC) chart could have seen the price topping out at $20,000. Now, why did this support (yellow line) turn into a resistance? As we can see, Bitcoin (BTC) tested this support a number of times and it held. However, when it broke, it was a major blow to bullish sentiment and thus the support turned into resistance. The price never managed to break above it during its next cycle. By the same logic, let us now analyze the white line. The white line served as an important resistance to Bitcoin (BTC). As we can see, this resistance was tested multiple times and it held. It was tested once in 2015, twice in 2016 and then twice in 2017. During its second retest in May 2017, Bitcoin (BTC) broke through this resistance and rallied higher. This was a major blow to bearish sentiment and thus the resistance turned into a support. Bitcoin (BTC) cannot break below this support. However, if Bitcoin (BTC) nosedives now, it can go lower than $5,800 to test this support. So, why do I say it cannot fall below $5,800? To answer that, let us now test our hypothesis. The above monthly chart for BTC/USD shows how Bitcoin (BTC) performed during two correction cycles. It also shows the duration of these corrections. Before we get to that, let us first state that as long as Bitcoin (BTC) stays above the 21 Month EMA, it is going up. Right now, the price is above the 21 Month EMA. Under different circumstances, it might have fallen below it. However, this time, all the pieces line up on the big picture. In 2014, we had a correction that lasted a period of 669 days (shown by 22 bars). On July 09, 2016, Bitcoin (BTC) had its second halvening. After that, we witnessed a correction in 2018. Now, that correction lasted a total duration of 335 days (shown by 11 bars). Is it just a coincidence that Bitcoin (BTC)’s recent correction lasted only half the duration of its previous correction? I don’t think so. All future cycles will exhibit a similar behavior. This is how Bitcoin (BTC) will ultimately achieve stability. Now, why can’t Bitcoin (BTC) fall below $5,800? First of all, if it falls below $5,800 it will have to break the 21 Month EMA. Breaking that would mean entering another bear trend. It would also mean Bitcoin (BTC) completing a correction in more than half the duration of its preceding correction.  Secondly, Bitcoin (BTC) will have to invalidate its entire trading history to break below the white line on the first chart. Given that this has never happened in the past eight years of Bitcoin (BTC)’s trading history, it is highly probable that this time will be no different. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1538128067916-0'); });