Is Stellar (XLM) Finally Out Of The Woods?

Stellar (XLM) made an incredible 25% gain today. However, the price has quickly retraced back towards the downtrend resistance. Whether Stellar (XLM) closes the weekly candle below or above the downtrend resistance today will decide Stellar (XLM)’s direction for the weeks to come. At this point, it does seem reasonable to assume that the downtrend is indeed over. Wave trend analysis for the above weekly XLM/USD chart shows that a new trend has begun. Elliot wave oscillator for the above chart also shows that the bear trend has ended. Additionally, the 21 week EMA which had been a strong resistance for XLM/USD these past six weeks has now been breached. In the world of cross border and peer to peer payments, Stellar (XLM) has emerged as a strong contender. If Ripple (XRP) did not have such a vast network of partners, it would have made Stellar (XLM) the unopposed winner in this space. However, the fact of the matter is that Ripple (XRP) currently dominates the space and has received a lot more attention and interest than Stellar (XLM). We are still in very early stages of this industry and no matter how good a technology may be compared to another, perception and hype make all the difference. To those in it for the long term, Stellar (XLM) might seem like an obvious winner because let’s face it, people may want to see faster and cheaper transactions with their existing banks for now, but sooner or later they are going to want to get rid of them completely and turn to peer to peer transactions, without the need for a middleman. The team behind Ripple (XRP) realizes that this may eventually happen but they think it is not going to happen anytime soon. Their argument is that the banks have existed for centuries and they are not going to just fade away without putting up a fight. Ripple (XRP) is going to help them put up that fight. Stellar (XLM) on the other hand would want to make peer to peer transactions more appealing to users. This makes them direct competitors and thus a good hedge against one another. Perhaps this is why we have seen early interest in Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) even as other cryptocurrencies still struggle to begin a new trend. Just as Ripple (XRP) has a lot of big banks and financial institutions on its side, Stellar (XLM) has an influential tech giant, IBM on its side. Stellar (XLM) has clearly broken the downtrend against Bitcoin (BTC). The weekly chart above for XLM/BTC shows that Stellar (XLM) has finally broken out of a falling wedge resistance against Bitcoin (BTC) and has just begun a new trend. XLM/BTC has also breached the 21 week EMA and can now be considered to be out of the woods. Elliot wave oscillator for the above chart shows a clear beginning of a new trend shown by a separated green bar on the EWO diagram. Even though Stellar (XLM) has broken its downtrend resistance against Bitcoin (BTC), its direction for the weeks to come still depends on how Stellar (XLM) closes the weekly candle. So far, Stellar (XLM) has respected its trend line which extends all the way back to 2017. Barring extenuating circumstances that might push Stellar (XLM) into another bear trend, it seems that Stellar (XLM) has no choice but to resume its bullish rally.