Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) will rise to $8,500 in December, according to fintech research firm Trefis in a Sept. 13 statement. BTC is currently at $6,500 and has seen modest gains the last couple of days. Trefis analysts brushed aside the recent price slump and said in their Forbes article that "there should be a steady recovery in the number of unique users as well as transaction volumes on the Bitcoin network over coming months – helping ... prices reach around $8,500 by the end of the year."
The New York-based firm has a tool called Bitcoin Price Estimator on its website that uses two key inputs to forecast price levels: number of active bitcoin users and daily transaction volume. Trefis considers these two factors as forming the coin's "fundamental value." Its team counts MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts as part of its talent pool. And the firm claims its model is 94% accurate.
Demand To Boost BTC Price
Analysts believe that BTC's price depends on demand and (limited) supply. But much of their prediction model focuses on demand. Specifically, the usage of the network in terms of daily users and transaction volume. It uses blockchain data to gather such information. Trefis' analysts acknowledge that positive or negative media coverage can help or hurt BTC's price but suggest that observers should keep an eye on long-term adoption as the critical metric.
"We expect the number of users on the ... network to continue to grow steadily over the coming months, which is why we believe the Bitcoin price will jump more than 30% over the next three months to reach $8,500. While this figure pales in comparison to the high it reached last year, and is also well below the $10,000-level seen in May."
Growing demand for the digital coin is a result of high inflation in countries such as Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, Libya, many parts of Africa and some parts of Middle East and Asia. In Turkey, gold imports have tripled in the first half of 2018 as investors gobble up hard assets to ease concerns of a potential economic meltdown.
Thus, the digital coin is able to act as substitute for failing fiat cash as well as preserver of wealth in regions that lack banking infrastructure and areas where governments have mismanaged the local economy. It's been said that BTC gives anyone with an internet connection the ability to have his or her own Swiss bank account.
Bitcoin ETF Approval Is Key For Industry
The SEC's approval of a Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) could significantly boost BTC's price, according to Trefis. "Approval would act as the single-biggest growth catalyst the cryptocurrency industry has seen to date, and presents a huge potential upside to Bitcoin prices."
Trefis analysts acknowledge that Goldman Sachs' recent announcement to delay in launching a cryptocurrency trading desk led to the recent slump. "The disappointment among Bitcoin investors is understandable," according to Sept. 7 blog. "While Goldman doesn’t seem to have canceled its plans for a crypto trading desk altogether, the delay indicates that it will be at least several more months (if not years) before investment banks actively participate in this industry."