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Why Bitcoin (BTC) May Fall Further But Altcoin Rally Is Just Getting Started

Why Bitcoin (BTC) May Fall Further But Altcoin Rally Is Just Getting Started
Bitcoin Chart With Values Bitcoin (BTC) has been through an extensive correction but it is not out of the woods yet. There are still plenty of analysts calling for a $3,000 bottom. In normal circumstances, the chances of that happening are negligible. If things remain as they are, there is no reason Bitcoin (BTC) might fall below $5,000. However, as we have seen in the past, it does not take much for things to change in this market. The last time we had a correction followed by another correction was back in 2014 when the Mt. Gox hack pushed Bitcoin (BTC) into a second correction of −59% for a period of 303 days. This means Bitcoin (BTC) had a total correction of −87.5% for a total period of 607 days. The behavior of altcoins during this entire period of Bitcoin (BTC)’s second correction from September 2014 to July 2015 has been very interesting but before we discuss that, let us examines the nature of this correction in more detail. Bitcoin (BTC)’s second correction in 2014 was very Bitcoin (BTC) centric. This means that the correction had more to do with Bitcoin (BTC) than the market as a whole because the hackers got away with 850,000 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $450 million at that time. No altcoins were involved. The immediate reaction to this was a drop in altcoins as well but soon afterwards the altcoin market started to rise as the hack did not have anything to do with altcoins. Bitcoin Market Capitalisation Chart The above chart shows the price of Bitcoin (BTC) falling soon after the Mt. Gox hack. This event had devastating effects on the price of Bitcoin (BTC) because Bitcoin (BTC) were stolen from the largest exchange at that time. However, the rest of the market behaved a lot differently as a lot of new blockchain projects had already gone through corrections of −90% or more and were therefore ready for a trend reversal. This may seem like a onetime event but if we analyze the situation closely, we will come to the conclusion that we are at the exact same time in history today under the exact same circumstances. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) risks a second correction and the nature of it appears to be Bitcoin (BTC) centric same as in 2014. As many of you are aware, the possibility of a Bitcoin ETF is what has recently pumped some life into Bitcoin (BTC) and saved it from falling more aggressively, in one go. However, the fate of Bitcoin ETFs is not known yet and any bad news might easily push Bitcoin (BTC) into a second correction. The whole situation is very Bitcoin (BTC) centric as a Bitcoin (BTC) ETF is only going to increase the price of Bitcoin (BTC) while altcoin projects will bleed as money will flow out of them into Bitcoin (BTC).  Similarly, if a Bitcoin (BTC) ETF is rejected, the fallout will only affect Bitcoin (BTC) as the rest of the market has nothing to do (directly) with a Bitcoin ETF. Furthermore, most altcoins have already completed more than a −90% correction. Bitcoin Market Capitalisation Chart Now we come to the most interesting part of this analysis. The above chart for altcoins shows the exact same period during which the price of Bitcoin (BTC) declined back in 2014. As you can see on the chart above, altcoins rose to new all time highs while the price of Bitcoin (BTC) started to fall. In fact, Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins followed opposite trajectories during the same period. This is also how altcoins got to complete their cycles against Bitcoin (BTC). Most of the time, news and events are just catalysts to make happen what is supposed to happen according to the charts. If you check most charts for altcoins right now, you will see that most of them have reached the full extent of their correction against Bitcoin (BTC) and have now bottomed out. If Bitcoin (BTC) were to rise at the same pace as altcoins, that cycle would never get completed. Right now, we are at the exact same time where an extended correction in Bitcoin (BTC) and an altcoin rally is going to keep the market moving as usual. This is why Bitcoin (BTC) may fall further but the altcoin rally is just getting started.

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BTC/USD Trapped By Moving Averages: Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 29 November 2020 BTC

BTC/USD Trapped By Moving Averages:  Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 29 November 2020 BTC

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) traded sideways early in today’s North American session as the pair appreciated to the 18248.21 area trading as low as the 17535.26 area in the Asian session, with the intraday low representing a test of the 38.2% retracement of the recent depreciating range from 19500 to 16200.  Traders observe that BTC/USD’s upside was capped by the 200-hour simple moving average during the European session, and supported around the 23.6% retracement of the depreciating range from 18980 to 17610.77 early in the North American session.  Also, the 50-bar 4-hourly simple moving average provided technical resistance during the North American session, and the intraday high also represented a test of an upside price objective around the 18256.14 area.  The pair stopped short of testing the 15808.49 area during the recent move lower, representing the 23.6% retracement of the wide appreciating range and absolute 2020 range from 3858 to 19500.  Significant Stops were elected during the decline including below the 18605.14, 18275.16, 18016.74, 17604.12, 17517.42, 17156.69, 17099.13, 16905.00, 16603.10, 16357.50, and 16292.58 levels.  If the pair is able to resume its upward trajectory and establish a new all-time high, traders are carefully monitoring the 20311.36 and 21909.24 areas as upside price objectives.  Similarly, the 20534.46 area is an upside price objective related to buying demand that originated earlier this year around the 6854.67 area. 

Traders will pay close attention to some potential areas of technical support during pullbacks lower and these include the 16092.69 and 15935.90 areas.  Notably, the 15935.90 and 16304.69 areas represent the 76.4% and 78.6% retracements of a historical depreciation from 19891.99 to 3128.89.  Further below current market activity, traders are paying close attention to additional potential areas of technical support during pullbacks and these include the 14273.50, 14259.01, 14101.50, 13989.55, 13892.29, 13705.50, 13663.43, and 13594.42 levels. Chartists are observing that the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) is bullishly indicating above the 100-bar MA (4-hourly) and above the 200-bar MA (4-hourly).   Also, the 50-bar MA (hourly) is bearishly indicating below the 100-bar MA (hourly) and below the 200-bar MA (hourly).

Price activity is nearest the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) at 18204.22 and the 200-bar MA (Hourly) at 18235.20.

Technical Support is expected around 16200/ 15996.17/ 15479.66 with Stops expected below.

Technical Resistance is expected around 19500/ 20311.36/ 21909.24 with Stops expected above.  

On 4-Hourly chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bullishly above MACDAverage.

On 60-minute chart, SlowK is Bearishly below SlowD while MACD is Bearishly below MACDAverage.

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ETH/USD Orbiting 551.65 Retracement Level: Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 29 November 2020 ETH

ETH/USD Orbiting 551.65 Retracement Level:  Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 29 November 2020 ETH

Ethereum (ETH/USD) traded sideways early in today’s North American session as the pair appreciated to the 558.68 area after trading as low as the 531.00 area in the Asian session, a test of the 50% retracement of the appreciating range from 439.77 to 623.22.  Traders are observing that ETH/USD is tightly oscillating around the 551.65 area, representing the 50% retracement of the depreciating range from 623.22 to 480.08.  The next upside retracement levels in this range include the 568.54, 589.44, and 592.59 levels.   The recent pullback was a test of the 479.03 area, representing the 78.6% retracement of the appreciating range from 439.77 to 623.22.  One level that traders are carefully monitoring is the 503.57 area, a level that represents the 38.2% retracement of the recent appreciating range from 310.00 to 623.22, and price activity was recently buoyed above this area.  Stops were recently elected below a series of retracement levels including 579.73, 563.58, 553.14, 531.50, 526.88, 509.85, 496.86, and 483.06. Larger Stops were elected below the 550.01 and 504.72 areas, retracement levels related to the wider appreciating range from 313.00 to 623.22.  On the upside, Stops were recently elected above the 615.19 area during the climb higher, an upside price objective related to buying activity that originated around the 142.10 level earlier this year.  The pair’s next upside price objectives include the 637.79, 668.87, 679.78, and 698.88 levels.   Traders are also paying close attention to technical resistance around the 627.83, 638.28, and 652.36 areas. 

Stops were also recently elected above the 583.59 and 592.24 areas during the ascent, retracement levels related to selling pressure that commenced around the 894.50 and 1419.96 levelsStops were also recently elected above the 519.16, 521.13, 524.97, and 540.64 areas during the ascent higher, preceded by Stops triggered above the 503.54, 508.69, and 510.22 levels.  During pullbacks lower, traders are paying close attention to the pair’s trading activity around the 461.31 area, an upside price objective related to buying pressure that emerged months ago around the 125.52 area.   Some additional downside retracement levels include 432.71, 431.36, 427.78, 424.14, 422.81, 419.74, 415.20, 411.91, and 408.12. Additional areas of potential downside support include the 400.56, 395.87, 387.62, 380.03, 377.17, 367.24, 366.72, 354.44, and 353.78 areas.  Traders are observing that the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) is bullishly indicating above the 100-bar MA (4-hourly) and above the 200-bar MA (4-hourly).  Also, the 50-bar MA (hourly) is bearishly indicating below the 100-bar MA (hourly) and below the 200-bar MA (hourly).

Price activity is nearest the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) at 554.10 and the 200-bar MA (Hourly) at 553.94.

Technical Support is expected around 417.60/ 388.49/ 366.72 with Stops expected below.

Technical Resistance is expected around 627.83/ 637.79/ 668.87 with Stops expected above.

On 4-Hourly chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bullishly above MACDAverage.

On 60-minute chart, SlowK is Bearishly below SlowD while MACD is Bullishly above MACDAverage.

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BTC/USD Facing Challenge at 17850: Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 28 November 2020 BTC

BTC/USD Facing Challenge at 17850: Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 28 November 2020 BTC

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) glided higher early in today’s North American session as the pair appreciated to the 17444.88 area trading as low as the 16880 area in the European session, with the intraday high representing a test of the 100-bar 4-hourly simple moving average.  Traders are carefully monitoring how BTC/USD will trade around important historical upside price objectives that were absorbed during the pair’s recent climb near its all-time high, including the 17657.16, 17891.76, 18256.14, and 18946.91 areas.  The pair stopped short of testing the 15808.49 area during the recent move lower, representing the 23.6% retracement of the wide appreciating range and absolute 2020 range from 3858 to 19500.  Significant Stops were elected during the decline including below the 18605.14, 18275.16, 18016.74, 17604.12, 17517.42, 17156.69, 17099.13, 16905.00, 16603.10, 16357.50, and 16292.58 levels.  If the pair is able to resume its upward trajectory and establish a new all-time high, traders are carefully monitoring the 20311.36 and 21909.24 areas as upside price objectives.  Similarly, the 20534.46 area is an upside price objective related to buying demand that originated earlier this year around the 6854.67 area. 

Traders will pay close attention to some potential areas of technical support during pullbacks lower and these include the 16092.69 and 15935.90 areas.  Notably, the 15935.90 and 16304.69 areas represent the 76.4% and 78.6% retracements of a historical depreciation from 19891.99 to 3128.89.  Further below current market activity, traders are paying close attention to additional potential areas of technical support during pullbacks and these include the 14273.50, 14259.01, 14101.50, 13989.55, 13892.29, 13705.50, 13663.43, and 13594.42 levels. Chartists are observing that the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) is bullishly indicating above the 100-bar MA (4-hourly) and above the 200-bar MA (4-hourly).   Also, the 50-bar MA (hourly) is bearishly indicating below the 100-bar MA (hourly) and below the 200-bar MA (hourly).

Price activity is nearest the 100-bar MA (4-hourly) at 17450.09 and the 50-bar MA (Hourly) at 17224.83.

Technical Support is expected around 16200/ 15996.17/ 15479.66 with Stops expected below.

Technical Resistance is expected around 19500/ 20311.36/ 21909.24 with Stops expected above.  

On 4-Hourly chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bearishly below MACDAverage.

On 60-minute chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bullishly above MACDAverage.

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ETH/USD Continues Recovery After Holding 503.57 Level: Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 28 November 2020 ETH

ETH/USD Continues Recovery After Holding 503.57 Level:  Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 28 November 2020 ETH

Ethereum (ETH/USD) extended its recent recovery in today’s North American session as the pair appreciated to the 529.90 area after trading as low as the 505.01 area in the European session, a test of the 100-bar 4-hourly simple moving average.  Traders lifted ETH/USD back above the 50-hour simple moving average during the North American session.  Some short-term upside retracement levels that traders are monitoring relate to the recent depreciating range from 623.22 to 480.08, and these include the 534.76, 551.65, 568.54, 589.44, and 592.59 levels.  The recent pullback was a test of the 479.03 area, representing the 78.6% retracement of the appreciating range from 439.77 to 623.22.  One level that traders are carefully monitoring is the 503.57 area, a level that represents the 38.2% retracement of the recent appreciating range from 310.00 to 623.22Stops were recently elected below a series of retracement levels including 579.73, 563.58, 553.14, 531.50, 526.88, 509.85, 496.86, and 483.06. Larger Stops were elected below the 550.01 and 504.72 areas, retracement levels related to the wider appreciating range from 313.00 to 623.22.  On the upside, Stops were recently elected above the 615.19 area during the climb higher, an upside price objective related to buying activity that originated around the 142.10 level earlier this year.  The pair’s next upside price objectives include the 637.79, 668.87, 679.78, and 698.88 levels.   Traders are also paying close attention to technical resistance around the 627.83, 638.28, and 652.36 areas. 

Stops were recently elected above the 583.59 and 592.24 areas during the ascent, retracement levels related to selling pressure that commenced around the 894.50 and 1419.96 levelsStops were also recently elected above the 519.16, 521.13, 524.97, and 540.64 areas during the ascent higher, preceded by Stops triggered above the 503.54, 508.69, and 510.22 levels.  During pullbacks lower, traders are paying close attention to the pair’s trading activity around the 461.31 area, an upside price objective related to buying pressure that emerged months ago around the 125.52 area.   Some additional downside retracement levels include 432.71, 431.36, 427.78, 424.14, 422.81, 419.74, 415.20, 411.91, and 408.12. Additional areas of potential downside support include the 400.56, 395.87, 387.62, 380.03, 377.17, 367.24, 366.72, 354.44, and 353.78 areas.  Traders are observing that the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) is bullishly indicating above the 100-bar MA (4-hourly) and above the 200-bar MA (4-hourly).  Also, the 50-bar MA (hourly) is bearishly indicating below the 100-bar MA (hourly) and below the 200-bar MA (hourly).

Price activity is nearest the 100-bar MA (4-hourly) at 507.28 and the 50-bar MA (Hourly) at 519.49.

Technical Support is expected around 417.60/ 388.49/ 366.72 with Stops expected below.

Technical Resistance is expected around 627.83/ 637.79/ 668.87 with Stops expected above.

On 4-Hourly chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bearishly below MACDAverage.

On 60-minute chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bullishly above MACDAverage.

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