Predicting When A Bitcoin ETF Will Be Approved
Aug 15, 2018
Bitcoin ETF, it’s been the word(s) of the day throughout the whole of July and August, there’s a good reason for that too. Within Bitcoin ETF decision making, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) the authority making the decisions, have an awful lot of power with regards the value of Bitcoin and subsequently, the rest of the markets too.
In essence, when an ETF application is refused, prices fall (as we have seen very recently with the denial of the Gemini/Winklevoss twins ETF). Likewise, when a decision is set to be made, but is delayed, the markets crash too.
Therefore, we can only assume that when a decision is made in favour of a Bitcoin ETF, the markets will fly. As it stands, there’s around nine ETF applications ready to have their fates decided in September, statistically at least one will be approved, but as ever, probability isn’t really a friend of cryptocurrency.
Will an ETF be approved?
It’s likely, though we can’t guess when it will be, or which one it will be. According to Finance Magnates though, Timothy Tam, the founder of CoinFi believes that Bitcoin ETFs are inevitable:
“With the flood of talent entering the crypto space and also large organizations like ICE doing a physical settled bitcoin contract, there are signs that bitcoin is turning into more of a traditional financial product that simply cannot be ignored. It wouldn’t be in traditional finance’s best interest to ignore crypto.”
Moreover, Arturs Ivanovs, the founder of FIC Networks has discussed a potential time frame for when a Bitcoin ETF is likely to be approved by. According to Finance Magnates:
“2020 is my prediction. A physical Bitcoin ETF, meaning, Bitcoin itself would be held in custody, then this is likely to have more traction with the SEC.”
2020 is a very long time to wait, right?
Perhaps, but many do believe that the markets need to become less susceptible to reactions surrounding Bitcoin ETF’s before the markets are actually able to handle any decisions made by the SEC. Overall volatility needs to be reduced too, this is something that according to Ivanovs, could be helped by a large amount of institutional investment in Bitcoin:
“Volume from institutional investors would facilitate a significant regulated market that would reduce the scale of price manipulation thereby easing the SEC’s concerns. An ETF would also open up the market to more retail investors.”
See more for yourself, here.
It’s impossible to predict when a Bitcoin ETF might be approved. Though hopefully, September will see at least some progression in this area. We hope that all nine see some sort of recognition but in reality this is unlikely. Hopefully though, through the SEC’s decision making, the markets will build a resilience to SEC based decision making that will mean in the future, this whole area will have much less of an impact on the markets.
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