Predicting When A Bitcoin ETF Will Be Approved
Bitcoin ETF, itâs been the word(s) of the day throughout the whole of July and August, thereâs a good reason for that too. Within Bitcoin ETF decision making, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) the authority making the decisions, have an awful lot of power with regards the value of Bitcoin and subsequently, the rest of the markets too.
In essence, when an ETF application is refused, prices fall (as we have seen very recently with the denial of the Gemini/Winklevoss twins ETF). Likewise, when a decision is set to be made, but is delayed, the markets crash too.
Therefore, we can only assume that when a decision is made in favour of a Bitcoin ETF, the markets will fly. As it stands, thereâs around nine ETF applications ready to have their fates decided in September, statistically at least one will be approved, but as ever, probability isnât really a friend of cryptocurrency.
Will an ETF be approved?
Itâs likely, though we canât guess when it will be, or which one it will be. According to Finance Magnates though, Timothy Tam, the founder of CoinFi believes that Bitcoin ETFs are inevitable:
âWith the flood of talent entering the crypto space and also large organizations like ICE doing a physical settled bitcoin contract, there are signs that bitcoin is turning into more of a traditional financial product that simply cannot be ignored. It wouldnât be in traditional financeâs best interest to ignore crypto.â
Moreover, Arturs Ivanovs, the founder of FIC Networks has discussed a potential time frame for when a Bitcoin ETF is likely to be approved by. According to Finance Magnates:
â2020 is my prediction. A physical Bitcoin ETF, meaning, Bitcoin itself would be held in custody, then this is likely to have more traction with the SEC.â
2020 is a very long time to wait, right?
Perhaps, but many do believe that the markets need to become less susceptible to reactions surrounding Bitcoin ETFâs before the markets are actually able to handle any decisions made by the SEC. Overall volatility needs to be reduced too, this is something that according to Ivanovs, could be helped by a large amount of institutional investment in Bitcoin:
âVolume from institutional investors would facilitate a significant regulated market that would reduce the scale of price manipulation thereby easing the SECâs concerns. An ETF would also open up the market to more retail investors.â
See more for yourself, here.
Itâs impossible to predict when a Bitcoin ETF might be approved. Though hopefully, September will see at least some progression in this area. We hope that all nine see some sort of recognition but in reality this is unlikely. Hopefully though, through the SECâs decision making, the markets will build a resilience to SEC based decision making that will mean in the future, this whole area will have much less of an impact on the markets. Â