Ethereum (ETH) is now close to its long term trend line and will soon have to test the bottom of its ascending channel as can be seen on the ETH/USD daily chart above. The price has yet to break past the downtrend resistance but technical indicators are preparing for the next run up. The correction seems to have run its course and with Ethereum (ETH) at the bottom of this channel, it is reasonable to assume that a new cycle can start from here.
Analysis of RSI conditions for Ethereum (ETH) on the daily chart shows that it has followed a sine wave pattern most of the time. The first time RSI reached the peak of this sine wave was back in May 2017. The second time it reached the top of this wave was in January 2018. Both these times, Ethereum (ETH) ended up reaching ATHs in a relatively short timeframe. Present outlook of RSI’s relation with the sine wave and impact on the price indicates that the price has missed its chance to reach the top of this wave in 2018. However, it is likely that the price could reach the top of this wave in March 2019. This would also coincide with the expected date for a Bitcoin (BTC) ETF.
While Ethereum (ETH) may not see big rallies like the ones in 2017 and early 2018 for the rest of this year, it is highly probable that the price will at least surpass its previous ATH. Earlier reference to a big run up in March 2019 will be something entirely different as institution get involved when custody solutions and entry gateways are made accessible and are also regulated. It is likely that an Ethereum ETF might be approved around the same time as the Bitcoin ETF which will allow institutional investors as well as traditional retail investors to also invest in Ethereum (ETH) and Ethereum Classic (ETC).
Clear signs that this correction is almost over are more visible on the ETH/BTC chart above which shows Ethereum (ETH) trading above its trend line after bouncing off it. Daily RSI for ETH/BTC also shows that a reversal is in progress and the price is likely to break near term resistance in the days ahead. MACD conditions also look favorable for a run up and the EMA alignment would soon be favoring the bulls as the trading range has become narrower and Ethereum (ETH) is now looking at a break out in the days ahead.
So, far the price has touched the top of this triangle two times and the bottom three times. The probability of a fourth touchdown on the long term trend line is very low. The most likely scenario would be that Ethereum (ETH) will climb from here to test the resistance, and then break the resistance to begin a new cycle. However, the only way to do that would be in the form of a slow and steady rise otherwise market conditions would be overbought if it runs straight up into the resistance, and will then ultimately have to fall down.