“I want to be clear, Bitcoin (BTC) is going to $25,000 by year end” said Tom Lee of Fundstrat last month. This statement did not appear very convincing back then as Bitcoin (BTC) was in a tough spot, struggling to stay above the 21 EMA. This month though, as the monthly chart above for BTC/USD shows, the monthly candle strongly bounced up from the 21 EMA and is now about to close above the 21 EMA. At this point, Tom Lee’s statement about a $25,000 end of the year target seems quite plausible.
As the above chart shows, even if Bitcoin (BTC) does nothing interesting and simply continues its uptrend, it will reach a price of $25,000 by January 1st, 2019. All it has to do is to stay above the 21 EMA which it has done a very good job at so far. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading within two triangles. If Bitcoin (BTC) breaks above its current price at the beginning of September, it is likely to break both of these triangles at the same time. Weis Wave Volume profile for the above chart shows that this recent correction was just a minor pullback to put Bitcoin (BTC) back on the track.
The month of April seems to be the axis of symmetry between Bitcoin (BTC)’s bearish and bullish cycles. The duration of the first half that falls below the curve for Bitcoin (BTC) shown on the above chart comes down to 274 days. The duration of the second half that falls below for the curve shown on the above chart for Bitcoin (BTC) comes down to 275 days. If Bitcoin (BTC) rises to $25,000 after beginning a new trend, it will just be a continuation of the uptrend and not a bullish rally like the one we witnessed between 2016 and 2018. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) can be expected to continue higher from $25,000 in 2019 if issues like custody solutions, regulations and security are resolved. A Bitcoin (BTC) ETF is also considered by some as an important catalyst for mass adoption.
The above weekly chart for BTC/USD sheds light on another interesting observation that vindicates our stance that Bitcoin (BTC) might easily reach $25,000 by year end. It also shows that what we are seeing here is a sign of the beginning of a big rally, not like the one in 2017, but like the one in 2016! The price of Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated above the 100 EMA before an aggresive rally in 2016. The same is happening this time as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) began consolidating above the 100 EMA in June this year. If history is any indication, we should see a strong rise from these levels but a minor correction in the first few months of 2019 which will then set the ground for a massive rally all the way to mid 2020 before Bitcoin (BTC)’s next halvening.