Bitcoin (BTC) has held the $5,800 support so far even as crypto carnage continues. While most altcoins have already suffered double digit losses, Bitcoin (BTC) has held its ground as can be seen on the daily BTC/USD chart above. The price is currently trading above $6,000 as technical conditions have reached oversold levels for the most part. RSI is trading barely above 30 but seems to have formed a double bottom. Weis Wave Volume indicator on the lower half of the above chart shows that the major move down is almost over as there is no momentum left for further downside at this point.
The overall EMA alignment remains bearish on the daily chart for BTC/USD. The price is trading below the 50 EMA and the bears are still very much in charge. Bulls are generally nowhere to be seen as there is still no momentum for a price reversal. However, the support at $5,800 has proved to be a strong one as the bears have failed to breach it despite a lot of panic selling and fear in the market. This is probably the worst situation Bitcoin (BTC) has ever been after the Mt. Gox hack. Back then, there was reason for all the fear and negative sentiment in the market because the Mt. Gox hack was serious business. However, this time Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be overreacting to relatively insignificant news like an ETF delay or Saudi Arabia ban.
The above 4H chart for BTC/USD shows that the price has found a strong support at $5,800. The near term resistance is now at the $6,615 level. Elliot Wave Oscillator for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on the above chart shows that the downtrend would last a total of 15 days and 4h which means the price can be expected to drop and consolidate till 15th of August. After that a reversal can be expected short term but whether or not Bitcoin (BTC) has put in a bottom this time yet remains to be seen.
So far, the volume has continued to remain low which makes it easy for a few big investors to swing the market from bullish to bearish and vice versa. During the past few days over the weekends, the price rose on Saturday and Sunday forming two consecutive green candles. In our previous analysis, we warned how that could be a false sign as trading activity on weekends is generally misleading due to very low volumes.
However, the volume over the past 24 hours is not a very accurate depiction of market interest either. There is plenty of money changing hands on the OTC market that far exceeds the volume of trading on exchanges. Most of these are institutional investors, family funds and the like. As long as there is Bitcoin (BTC) available to buy in OTC markets, most of these big players would not bother with exchanges. However, to buy altcoins, they will have to use exchanges. That is why we anticipate that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will have a slow but steady climb for the remaining half of this year whereas altcoins can be expected to make bigger gains.