Last week was critical for Bitcoin (BTC) because it could have closed below the 21 EMA for the first time since 2016. This would also have invalidated a 2013 styled bullish view and pushed Bitcoin (BTC) into a bear market for a long time. However, fortunately for Bitcoin (BTC) none of that happened as the price bounced off the 21 EM and closed a monthly candle above it, affirming a bullish view. So, far Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be repeating a 2013 styled price action which is a 2 years bull run, comprising of two segments. Bitcoin (BTC) has already completed an extended run up in the first half i.e. from 2017 to 2018. If it were to follow a 2013 styled scenario, it will complete more aggressive run up by January 2019. This would mean a price target of $50,000 or higher for Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of the year.
The monthly RSI also looks favorable for such a run up. Depending on the nature of the next bull run, we can expect another correction in 1 to 3 years from now when the RSI peaks again and the price touches the top of the bullish channel around $100,000 or higher. It is pertinent to note that two important predictions from two top industry leaders, Arthur Hayes and Tim Draper also fit in this scenario. Arthur Hayes, CEO of Bitmex reaffirmed his prediction of $50,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price by the end of the year. He did add though that Bitcoin (BTC) could find a bottom between $3,000 and $5,000 this year. Renowned Bitcoin (BTC) maximalist, Tim Draper, who also happens to be a successful VC called for a Bitcoin (BTC) price target of $250,000 by 2022. This could be the price Bitcoin (BTC) price peaks at before the next correction.
However, some Bitcoin (BTC) investors and analysts are still not convinced that a 2013 styled scenario will follow through as they believe Bitcoin (BTC) will follow a 2014 styled scenario. A 2014 styled scenario means Bitcoin (BTC) breaking market structure before the next run up. In the chart above, we can see that Bitcoin (BTC) has now touched the $5,800 level three times but candles have closed around that price only two times. This means that Bitcoin (BTC) could retrace again to close a candle around $5,800 level again, breaking market structure soon afterwards.
One important principle of technical analysis is that if the price of an asset keeps testing a support line, it is likely that it will break through it at some point. This is what Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be doing right now. The price has rallied up significantly in the past few days but there is not enough volume to back it up. It is also currently struggling to break above the 21 EMA on BTC/USD daily chart. The most likely scenario is that Bitcoin (BTC) will drop back to $5,800 level and then break market structure to test $5,000 level. If it rebounds strongly from $5,000, we can expect this correction to be over. Otherwise, Bitcoin (BTC) will have to find a bottom between $3,000 and $5,000 in the weeks ahead.