Bitcoin (BTC) bears have been in control for far too long these past few months. The bulls appear to have given up without even putting up a fight. This is to be expected in markets like these when fears of a government crackdown, stringent regulations and exchange hacks constantly loom over the horizon. The global economy is in shambles and investors in most markets are running scared. It is natural to expect such deep rooted negative sentiment considering most investors bought Bitcoin (BTC) only because it was going up, on in other words to make money. The number of investors who bought Bitcoin (BTC) out of principle is insignificant comparatively.
Investors who did not do their research and bought only because the price was making 5% gains every passing day were quick to sell when things turned bad. Some of them sold at the earliest sight of a correction whereas others held on thinking Bitcoin (BTC) will not fall below a certain level. For some, that level was $15,000 and for some it was $10,000. So, when Bitcoin (BTC) fell below those levels, those investors liquidated their positions which pulled the price further down.
Some investors in the crypto community actually think that CME or CBOE Bitcoin (BTC) Futures had something to do with it, or an exchange hack was behind this prolonged correction. However, the simple explanation to all these speculations is that the price was supposed to correct after such a big run. Professionals, who have been investing in other markets before cryptocurrencies, saw this coming. However, amateur investors who had no prior trading experience were alarmed by the big price drops and most of them panic sold.
This has two important implications. Firstly, the number of amateur investors looking to panic sell has decreased significantly. Most of those who wanted to get out have already done so. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 70% from all time high. The number of potential “panic sellers” at this point is negligible. However, same is the case with the number of new retail buyers. Why is that? That is because most of the buyers were first time buyers who bought near the top around $17,000 to $19,000 levels. When the correction began, most of them sold at 40 to 50 percent losses, some even more than that.
This means that most of those buyers are now looking to get back the same number of coins that they lost. The only way they can do that is if Bitcoin (BTC) price comes down to $3,000 or $2,000 levels. This explains the prevalent negative sentiment in the market right now. Institutional investors do not buy on exchanges and the investors who buy on exchanges (retail) are expecting the price to fall further out of their own vested interests. Those who did not sell are still holding. So, what is going to happen next? Well, the price will test $6,000 and then continue to trade sideways for a while until a catalyst pumps it up. At that point, those retail investors looking to get their coins back will FOMO in, again at higher prices and Bitcoin (BTC) price will continue to rise towards new highs.