Bitcoin (BTC) has been called a lot of things from digital gold to an elaborate scam. However, one thing has remained steady and that is its growth over the years. As an asset with a limited supply, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is bound to increase with the passage of time. However, an in depth analysis of the cryptocurrency shows that not only has the price of Bitcoin (BTC) increased with time, but its rate of increase has increased as well.
The above chart demonstrates this analysis and comprises of two types of Bitcoin (BTC) rallies: Rally X and Rally Y. The former comprises of a period of 12 months and is an extended rally whereas the latter comprises of 6.5 months and is a condensed rally. Interestingly enough, Bitcoin (BTC) has made these rallies in an alternating sequence, each time with more vigor and zeal than before. The chart above shows a Rally X at the beginning of 2015. It reaches a high around October 2015 when its RSI level touches the yellow resistance line, recording a 368% price rally. It is pertinent to note here that every rally demonstrated above peaks when RSI touches the yellow resistance line. Similarly, the price reaches a bottom when RSI hits the lower yellow support line.
Bitcoin (BTC) records a 128% increase in the form of Rally Y in 6 months from January to July 2016. It is then followed again by a Rally X that records a 538% increase during a period of 12 months from July 2016 to July 2017. Another Rally Y follows after that with a 1022% price increase in duration of 6 months from July 2017 to January 2018. This is followed by another Rally X which has begun during January 2018 and is expected to complete by January 2019.
An interesting pattern to note here is that every Rally X and Rally Y has registered an increase with the passage of time. For instance, Rally X during 2017 registered a 170% increase compared to the Rally X in 2015. Similarly, Rally Y between 2017 and 2018 registered an 894% increase compared to Rally Y in 2016. By the same analogy, Rally X between January 2018 and January 2019 is expected to have a price increase of more than 170%. This puts the absolute minimum for Rally X at 708%, which translates into a minimum price of $47,490 for Bitcoin (BTC) by January 2019.
This analysis is also in perfect accord with our previously made analysis of Bitcoin (BTC)’s macro play since January 2012. While the previous chart makes a case for the absolute minimum, this chart also makes a case for an absolute maximum of $130,000 by the end of January 2019. This monthly chart also has an absolute minimum of its own for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) which translates into a minimum target of $32,000 by the end of January 2019.
The first chart may appear to be more conservative but it has a comparatively higher minimum of $47,490 whereas the monthly chart below appears more optimistic but has a lower minimum target of $32,000 by the end of January 2019. As the monthly chart is a more accurate reflection of the price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) over the years, this leads us to conclude that the minimum price target of Bitcoin (BTC) by January 2019, according to our analysis is $32,000.