Bitcoin (BTC) has had a spectacular rally last year but it is far from over yet. The price surged from $800 at the beginning of 2017 and peaked at $20,000 by the end of the year recording a 25x price increase! However, if you look at the weekly logarithmic chart above, you will see that we are not done yet. If you bought Bitcoin (BTC) at the beginning of 2017 and have been holding ever since, there is a high chance that you might be sitting on a jackpot by the end of 2018.
Most savvy investors often remark that Bitcoin (BTC) is more of a gamble than an investment. That is true if you base investment decisions on short term price movements. In investing or trading, it is important to know what time frame you are trading on. You have to understand whether your position is for short term, medium term or long term. Most seasoned investors hold long term positions in volatile and risky assets like cryptocurrencies. In order to make the best of their investments, they study long term charts and patterns instead of short term price action. The thing about these patterns and graphs is that they are cyclical in nature and tend to repeat themselves most of the time.
If you look at the same chart above, you could have bought Bitcoin (BTC) at the beginning of 2014 at $1,100. Today, you might think, “Boy, what a deal!” However, back then at the end of 2014 the price dropped to $300 all the way from $1,100 a 73% drop and it did not stop there. The price continued to drop and reached a low of $200 in late 2015. If you had been hodling at a loss all this time, you would still have a 20x return if you sold your Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2017. That is a $1,000 investment would have made you $19,000 in profit. However, I’m sure it would not have been easy for most to hold at such times.
This brings us to the most important part of our discussion, looking at the big picture. If you look at the chart above, you can see that Bitcoin (BTC) has faced some resistance at what could be a possible downtrend resistance line. For the amateur investor, this is bad news because Bitcoin (BTC) is not making 20% or 40% gains in one day. However, for shrewd investors who see the big picture, this is the time to accumulate. An important thing to note here is that past patterns or movements are not necessarily indicative of future movements but the big picture remains intact. In this case, if you look at the big picture, if Bitcoin (BTC) follows history, the price should rise all the way to $150,000 by the end of 2018. However, if it does not follow history, the price may find a bottom near $5,000 by the end of 2018 but the long term picture will stay intact as it has been since 2011. This means best case scenario, we can expect a price of as high as $150,000 by the end of 2018. Worst case scenario, Bitcoin finds a bottom near $5,000 and that is the last time we see $5,000 in the history of Bitcoin. I’ll conclude with a quotation from George Soros, “It is not whether you are right or wrong that is important, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.”