In the world of cryptocurrency there are all kinds of predictions floating around. Some seem too far fetched – like McAfee’s $500,000 USD per coin in 3 years for example. But others, while they seem exaggerated, for some reason feel like they are just under the threshold of the unattainable, especially when an expert makes them. This is the case of Trace Mayer’s most recent price prediction. Mayer sustains that bitcoin prices will hit $27,395 USD by February 2018. That looks like a huge number given current prices and the looming contentious SegWit2X fork. Nevertheless, it feels like it is still under the threshold of the unattainable.
So How Did Trace Mayer Arrive at Such a Precise Estimate?
The other enticing feature behind Trace Mayer’s prediction, is the precision of the number. Mayer calculated the price to the last Dollar, unlike McAfee who just threw a half a million Dollar figure seemingly out of nowhere. In fact, there is some method to Trace Mayer’s madness. This early adopter went into the 200-day moving average for bitcoin prices, and developed a score to understand when bitcoin was overvalued or undervalued in the past.
Mayer sustains that bitcoin would be fairly priced at around 4 times the moving value in the last 200 days. That figure should be $27,395 USD if bitcoin’s 200-day moving average hits $5,767.50 USD. This last figure, is the result of an extrapolation of previous 200-day moving averages. Looking forward, the 200-day figure is subject to a wide variety of variables, as well as looming known unknowns that could throw all the math off.
— Trace Mayer (@TraceMayer) October 9, 2017
No One Doubts Trace Mayer’s Ability with Numbers
Trace Mayer relies on these calculations mainly because of his background in accounting. However, Bertrand Russel warned about the logical perils of assuming that the future will somehow resemble the past. No on knows where the contentious SegWit2X fork will take bitcoin – if it happens at all – and there could be a wide variety of other events that can derail bitcoin from achieving its fair price according to Mayer’s calculations. Those considerations have always been the Achilles heel of technical analysts who rely on patterns based on historic data.
Not Far Fetched?
On the other hand, even if there are no major events that derail bitcoin prices over the next 6 months, the market itself doesn’t necessarily price bitcoin fairly according to Mayer’s own calculations. In fact, bitcoin was only valued fairly in 2 of Mayer’s 8 data points. This means that a $27,395 USD bitcoin could be far off, even if the price point come February 2018 is reasonable. Therefore, people should take this scenario with a grain of salt, however logical and attainable it may seem.
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