Bitcoin made an impressive attempt at a recovery but lost steam around the top. The manner in which it is struggling to break past $9.7k shows us the weakness in the price action. It is as if the bulls are trying too hard to save the price from falling again. The market is not a place for hoping or wishing. There are many people waiting for the price to shoot to a new all-time high from here and there are also those waiting for a decline below $9k. In my opinion, we will see the price find a middle ground as it declines once again towards the 200-moving average on the 4H time frame provided that we see a clear decline below the 38.2% fib level outlined on the chart.
In case we see a close below the 38.2% multiple times on the 1H time frame, we would be looking at the beginning of another downtrend. The 200-moving average on the 15 min time frame is also a good indicator to spot a trend change. If BTC/USD does decline from here, it would be very improbable for it to fall below $9k. We have previously seen it close below the 200-moving average on the 4H time frame even during the middle of a parabolic uptrend. So, the same thing could happen once again to mislead retail bears but if the price were to decline much lower down to $9k or lower if it breaks below the 61.8% fib level, then the uptrend will be broken and we might not see $11.7k which I think is not very probable.
The 4H chart for ETH/USD also shows that if the price declines below the ascending triangle, it will be very hard to maintain this uptrend. It is in the interest of the market makers and the whales to keep as much optimism in the market as possible before the upcoming halving. This is why they have been pumping the price since the beginning of the year. They are not going to let the price fall to a certain level so as not to spook the horse. The game plan here is to make retail traders as complacent as possible.
The S&P 500 (SPX) just began another day in red which is a bad omen for the cryptocurrency market. Previous downtrends in the index have led to similar downtrends in Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD forex pair is at a decision point after find support on the 78.6% fib level. It remains to be seen where the cryptocurrency market moves further from here but at this point some sort of a retracement would be expected if the price fails to break past $9.7k. In that case, if we see a decline below $9k, we might see this uptrend break and Bitcoin may not rally any higher before halving.