Bitcoin (BTC) is at a very interesting point. On one hand, we have the possibility of a golden cross that could make the price fly straight towards $5,800-$6,000. This golden cross has a high probability of coming to fruition now that the price is trading above the 200 day moving average. The 50 day and 200 day moving averages are very close and soon as the cross over happens; we could see the price shoot towards the major resistance zone around $5,800-$6,000. The Stochastic RSI on the daily time frame shows that the price could make a final move to the upside to test the resistance zone. In order for BTC/USD to begin its next downtrend, it would be very healthy for the price long term to test this zone now.
The price does not even have a major resistance in its way to stop it from a retest of this strong resistance zone. However, there is one problem and that is that this move is far too obvious. The majority of people in this market whether they are bullish or bearish are expecting this to happen. A lot of bears are waiting for the price to test that zone so they can short sell whereas a lot of bulls are waiting for the price to hit $5,800-$6,000 so they can sell. In my opinion, if the price does end up testing this zone, it will quickly result in a sharp pullback and the weekly candle would leave a long wick to the upside as it retraces. If the price does not have the strength to rally strongly towards this major resistance zone, we could see it crawl up towards it in the weeks and months ahead.
The weekly timeframe is where things get the most interesting. If we look at this chart for BTC/USD, we can see that the price has already closed the last two candles below the 50 week EMA. However, the previous week did saw the price rise way past the 50 week EMA before it ended up closing below it. We could see the same thing happen this time or in the next few weeks. The price could rise towards $5,800-$6,000 and face a strong rejection leading to a close below the 50 week EMA. Normally, we would not discount the possibility of the price piercing straight through the $6,000 mark and beginning the bull market from there, but this time the circumstances are different.
First of all, the price is heavily overbought on the weekly time frame which means we are going to see a sharp move to the downside sooner or later. This decline will have to be steady and it will last over a period of weeks or months till Bitcoin (BTC) finds its true bottom. Second of all, every market cycle in the history of Bitcoin (BTC) has taken longer than the previous cycle. Some people like to associate Bitcoin (BTC)’s market cycles with halvening but that is not true. There is no such thing as four year cycles. As time goes by, Bitcoin (BTC) cycles will keep on taking longer than before as the rate of growth and decline will slow down as the market cap of Bitcoin (BTC) rises.