Bitcoin (BTC) is still in a downtrend but it has now bounced off the bottom of the descending channel it is trading in. This is why BTC/USD is expected to at least climb all the way back towards the top of the channel before beginning another wave. A lot of indicators on higher time frames indicate that this might have been the last wave down for the next few months, meaning that we have reached a bottom but a double bottom will likely be formed in the next few months. It is thus very probable that Bitcoin (BTC) will climb back towards $6,000 before it falls to form a double bottom again. Even if Bitcoin (BTC) is due for further downside short term, it will at least have to reach the top of the descending channel.
If Bitcoin (BTC) climbs back towards the top of the channel, it will reach a price close to $4,000. After that, we will have to see where the price can continue to rise or if it faces rejection at the downtrend resistance and falls back into the channel to possibly form a new yearly low. The sentiment remains heavily bearish and the bulls are too weak to step in. The bears are beginning to lose confidence but they are still very much in charge. If the price were to fall all the way down to $3,400, it is unlikely that it will be met by significant resistance from the bulls. That being said, smart money is busy accumulating at these levels as the risk/reward is very favorable.
Most of us like to compare the current bear market with that of 2014 but there are some key differences that we do not see on the BTC/USD charts. Back then we did not have Bitcoin Futures and the OTC markets were not as developed. So, anyone wanting to dump or buy a large quantity of Bitcoin (BTC) had to do it via exchanges. This meant that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) was in line with what was actually happening. Currently, that is not the case. Bitcoin (BTC) futures and more sophisticated OTC markets have enabled the whales to go incognito. They can do a lot of things behind the scenes and retail traders would know nothing about it. If this was not the capitulation phase that would mean that the current market cycle is longer than the previous one.
This seems plausible considering Bitcoin futures and OTC market has enabled the big players to make their moves behind the scene while the market had to trade sideways in confusion. The price action of Bitcoin (BTC) currently gives us very little information as to what is really happening. This is why it is best for long term investors to look at the big picture and dollar cost average their entries accordingly. It is not possible to time every wave up or down unless you are a whale, but is possible to get the general direction of the market. This is why a lot of people prefer to be either swing traders or hodlers instead of day traders in this market.